what is the probability for set over set on Flop?

    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Hi,

      It is interesting to know the probability for set over set.
      Let say, we have pocket 2s and we hit set on Flop. what is the probability that our opponent has bigger set?

      thanks. ;)
  • 6 replies
    • patszerdonk
      patszerdonk
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2011 Posts: 834
      I'm not a math guy, so I'm not 100% sure.

      HU Poker. When Hero flopping set, chance that Villain:

      - Holding pp: ~5% (according to chart)
      - Flopping set: ~8% (4 outs x 2%)

      So, chances are 5% x 8% = 0.4% Villain flopping set everytime Hero flopping set.
      For 6max and 9max chances are higher but not too significant to worry about.
    • Tarhonya
      Tarhonya
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 694
    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Originally posted by Tarhonya
      Hello Tarhonya,

      what is this?
      Is that mean when we have set of 2 and the probability that we facing higher set is 3.9430% in head up pot?

      thanks.
    • Tarhonya
      Tarhonya
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 694
      Hello, sorry for the delay:

      Three times in the last 24 hours I've lost with a flopped set-under-set. So I wrote a program to figure out how often this happens. That is, if you flop a set, it figures out how often at least one other player has a higher set on the flop. The following table is for nine-handed games:

      I was a bit surprised. I didn't think it would happen this often with the smaller pairs (almost 1 time in 25 with 22). I'm not quite sure what to do with this information, if anything.

      Update: The above numbers are somewhat misleading because the program counts all flops, not just ones with overcards.
      Edit: forgot to add that this is from a random blog I found with the chart through google
    • wazawanga
      wazawanga
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2009 Posts: 1,720
      Originally posted by Tarhonya
      Hello, sorry for the delay:

      Three times in the last 24 hours I've lost with a flopped set-under-set. So I wrote a program to figure out how often this happens. That is, if you flop a set, it figures out how often at least one other player has a higher set on the flop. The following table is for nine-handed games:

      I was a bit surprised. I didn't think it would happen this often with the smaller pairs (almost 1 time in 25 with 22). I'm not quite sure what to do with this information, if anything.

      Update: The above numbers are somewhat misleading because the program counts all flops, not just ones with overcards.
      fold the low sets if you get action , then post hands here pls
    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Originally posted by wazawanga
      Originally posted by Tarhonya
      Hello, sorry for the delay:

      Three times in the last 24 hours I've lost with a flopped set-under-set. So I wrote a program to figure out how often this happens. That is, if you flop a set, it figures out how often at least one other player has a higher set on the flop. The following table is for nine-handed games:

      I was a bit surprised. I didn't think it would happen this often with the smaller pairs (almost 1 time in 25 with 22). I'm not quite sure what to do with this information, if anything.

      Update: The above numbers are somewhat misleading because the program counts all flops, not just ones with overcards.
      fold the low sets if you get action , then post hands here pls
      sick to fold low sets without any sick read. :)