DoN Bubble -- Sng Wizard Quiz has odd answer

    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      I have SitNGo Wizard out for a test drive, and I've been using the Quiz feature to practice Double-or-Nothing bubble play.

      Occasionally, one of the "folds" indicates that one should shove 0% of hands, and the hand illustrated below is such a hand.

      As you can see from the line marked "Diff%: 0.12", this is a profitable call.
      SitNGo Wizard, however has a concept they call "Edge" which is an indicator of the minimum profitability required to make a play. According to their dox, the closer you are to UTG, and the higher your stack, and the lower the blinds, the higher the edge must be. Here, they have it a 0.26.

      In the screen shot below, the calling ranges of the players yet to act are shown. Even if you shrink those ranges down to KK+ for the remaining 3 players, they program says "Fold".



      So my question for the experts is:
      Even at these low blind levels, even this early in the tournament, would you EVER fold AA for real?

      Thanks in advance
  • 13 replies
    • Tarhonya
      Tarhonya
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      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 694
      Why you want to play push or fold at almost 69 BB deep?

      That's a simple call and if a bigger stack shoves it into you for some weird reason than you can fold it easily, considering that his range beats the shortstaker anyway.

      It might be profitable to shove by sngwiz, however it's accuracy is debatable in very shallow and very deep situations such as this.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Well, I DON'T want to play push or fold here.

      Yes, I would raise here.

      The question is, would you ever fold AA for real?
    • Tarhonya
      Tarhonya
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      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 694
      Altough I'm not an expert:
      I wouldn't raise, just call the 251 and if SB or BB decide to shove almost ten times the pot than yes, I would fold. The pot is protected because the shortstack is already all-in so bluffing makes no sense. Even if the SB and the BB were fishes they would just overcall with a really wide range and check it all the way to showdown to maximize the chance of busting out the shortstack.

      If you go all-in with your whole stack against one of the big stacks and let's assume he's got JJ+ than you'd have 19% chance of busting out! A chance that you really shouldn't take since you have a nice, healthy stack and the blinds are really low, so you have plenty of time to act.

      If you fold because SB or BB shoved than there's a huge chance that you'll end up ITM because the shortstack's range is quite wide and the shove from SB or BB is crushing it.

      Don't take risks where you don't have to.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Originally posted by Tarhonya
      Altough I'm not an expert
      ...

      Don't take risks where you don't have to.
      Well, I'm definitely no expert either, and I'm right there with you on the risk-taking part.

      The SnGWizard Quiz is rather artificial. It only has two choices, push or fold.
      Also, the situation is a bit hard to believe -- on the bubble with the blinds still at 60/30 -- might happen but rather rare.

      We both agree that fold is out of the question.

      If we just call, do we not invite a squeeze play?
      But, since this is the bubble, the other players would be content to let us take down the shorty. Even though they outstack us, they are risk-averse against us.

      There is no point in raising. Sane players will sit back and relax while we do the work. If any of the bigger stacks wants to join in the fun, then they should also just call, to increase the odds that one of the bigger stacks will take out the short one.

      Thanks for your input, this one question made me do more thinking than all of the rest.

      But I'm STILL not going to fold :D
    • Tarhonya
      Tarhonya
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      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      Even though they outstack us, they are risk-averse against us.
      Yes, but not everybody knows that, or they just don't care about that just like you:

      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      But I'm STILL not going to fold :D
      See, you are not going to fold AA even though that's not the superior play, just like SB or BB would call/shove with KK because they are not risk-averse!

      So you'd call a shove from KK with AA even though 18% of the time KK beats you with a set or better. Even if we consider that when KK improves and beats you doesn't mean you are busted out because most of the time the improved KK hand will beat the shorty too, but if the shorty made the best hand (like flush/straight on Kxxxx board)........
      than you are screeeeewed!

      Of course the chance of all that happenig and you busting out with AA is pretty slim, but a couple of these situations might have anegative effect on your ROI.
    • Targetme
      Targetme
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      The correct play is to call/fold I dont even play dons and im 100% sure of this. The reason sng wizard says to fold because it gives you only 2 options fold or shove and folding is the better of the two. You dont always have to fold or shove and call/folding so little of your stack to end it is worth it time wise if nothing else.
    • elhh82
      elhh82
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      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Besides setting the call % for if you call, you also need to set the call % for if you fold

      that determines how likely your opponents clash, and on the bubble the higher that % the better it is for you so the more you have to fold.

      Set those too and maybe the answer will make more sense.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      I think targetme hit the nail on the head.
      call by all means, but fold if anyone raises.

      Let them take the risk.

      I suspect that in real life, if you call here, everyone will just let you play it.

      One DoN today, I was card dead the entire game, except for one hand, were I raised TT from mid and everyone folded.

      By the time we were on the bubble, all of the 30+ VPIP players were out, and only the rocks were left.

      But I'm learning.
      I ran all 3 tournaments today through SnG Wizard, and had two warnings, and both of those were where I folded and they figured I should have pushed.

      Even at the $11 level, I find that people are WAY looser than SngWiz thinks people are. Knowing that, I've been doing better.
    • elhh82
      elhh82
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      ^^ never rely on default ranges
    • Mark1790
      Mark1790
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      I do not play DON's but elhh82 is bang on the money for default ranges.
      Targetme also gave great answer SNG only push/fold.
      One of the questions was when is it correct to fold AA preflop.
      If playing a satellite and you were on the bubble ie 5 get paid, 6 players left:

      blinds 500/1000

      1 8000
      2 8000
      3 10000
      4 12000
      5 8000
      6 7000

      if you where in 6 ie BB with AA and 1 goes all in gets called by 2 and 3 then you would fold.
      As I said I do not play DON's but it must be the same.

      cheers
      Mark
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      I understand about the default ranges.
      In fact when I use the Quiz feature of SnGWizard, I have it give random ranges for each position, and on any close decision, I alter the ranges to see what range would make it OK to do the opposite action.

      I think that part of the problem lies in the nature of the SnGWiz quiz. There are only two options, and sometimes "call" or "raise" might be viable too.

      I have put the lesson here to good use, though. I haven't folded AA yet, but I have folded AK in a similar situation: On the bubble, and two shorties are all-in.
      There is no point in getting tangled up in their battle. One will either be out, or a cripple. Worst case is a split, and they're still both shorties.

      One other think I've noted about SnGWiz:
      It seems to think that it is +EV for the BB to call fairly wide.
      I've not checked this out w/ any other tools yet. I think that this is due to the BB often getting pot odds to call what would otherwise be a fold.
    • Tarhonya
      Tarhonya
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      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      It seems to think that it is +EV for the BB to call fairly wide.
      I've not checked this out w/ any other tools yet. I think that this is due to the BB often getting pot odds to call what would otherwise be a fold.
      Sngwiz is best for push or fold situations since it's not calculating postflop edges and the push or fold is nothing but stealing the blinds so - correct me if I'm wrong - the blinds will be attacked widely therefore they should be defended with a much wider range as well.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      As I understand SnGWizard's dox, they take the equity of the BB's hand against the pusher's range, and compare that to the pot odds.

      Once the blinds get big relative to stack sizes, the BB gets v good pot odds to call wide -- especially if the BB has a short stack.

      When pushing, then you need to realize that if there is a short stack in the BB, he is likely to call you v wide.