Actually the chances aren't all that bad, if you actually dedicate your time and make a proper effort out of it, you need to play a lot of games, I'd prefer the higher buyins though, I expect them to be less fishy. The consellation prize is worth winning too.

Fort Knox Calculations: (pasted from an unnamed source

)

All else being equal you have a 16.7% chance of winning a 6-man SNG... an 'average' player wins six in a row 0.002% of the time - or 1 in 500 sets of 6. Put another way if Mr Average plays 3000 jackpot SNGs he could expect, on average, to win the jackpot once.

The rake or fee is $9 here instead of the standard $5 for this level – so over 3000 games you would pay a total of $23000 in rake. Now compare this with an average of one $50k Jackpot SNG prize and is looks like we may have some value here!

But this is not the whole picture. In order to have a real comparison we need to look at the prize pool structure and compare this with the prize structure in a ‘normal’ SNG for a winning player. After all, it would only make sense to try for the jackpot if the expected dollar value is positive over time compared to your usual game once the extra fee is taken into account.

We will use the example of ‘Mrs Winner’ a good SNG player with a finish distribution for 6-max SNGs that look like this: 25% 1st place / 15% 2nd place / 10% 3rd place finishes.

Here is the sum of profits after 3000 non-Jackpot SNG:

750 1st ($210) = $157500

450 2nd ($90) = $40500

Total = (157500 + 40500) - (3000* $55) = +$33000

Now the same calculation for the Fort Knox Jackpot SNGs:

750 1st ($150) = $112500

450 2nd ($90) = $40500

300 3rd ($60) = $18000

Total = ($112500 + $40500 + $18000) - (3000 * $59) = -$6000

A big difference! Over 3000 games there is a difference of $39000 - a strong suggestion that the winning player should stick to the lower-rake non-jackpot SNGs... but wait, in saying that 'Mrs Winner' has 25% winning chances we need to recalculate the probability of 6 in a row - this is now 0.019%, almost 1 in 50! This means that nothing like 3000 games are required to win the jackpot – we suddenly swing back into a large positive expectation!

I'm not sure what that actually relates back to in ROI but I should think it's quite high.