[NL2-NL10] NL2 - FR - JT - top-two-pair vs shoves on flop

    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $2.01
      BB: $3.16
      UTG: $2.12 vp 10/pf 4/af 2.5/3b 0.0/fts na/wts 0/wsd na/h 70
      UTG+1: $0.74
      Hero (MP): $2.48
      CO: $2.00
      BTN: $3.59

      SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has T:club: J:spade:

      UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, BB checks

      Flop: ($0.09, 4 players) J:club: 8:club: T:diamond:
      BB checks, UTG bets $0.09, fold, Hero raises to $0.28, fold, UTG raises to $2.10 and is all-in, Hero ???

      Hi veriz,

      He ship it on the flop. Can I call here? I need 43% while I got 54%. Not sure about his range though. I think I should put him more on a set or overpair, since he open-limps from UTG.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Jc8cTd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 53.56% 50.75% 2.82% { JsTc }
      MP3 46.44% 43.62% 2.82% { TT+, 88, AQs-AJs, A9s, KJs, QJs, Q9s, JTs, J8s, 97s, AcKc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AJo, KJo, QJo, Q9o, JTo, J8o, 97o }

      Thanks,
      cpers
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello cpers,

      The guys VPIP so far is 10%, why do you now think he limps all those wide hands? Especially why do you think he ships with just FD? Neither I doubt that he is overplaying any just TP type of hand in this case. They must be really spewy to do that. So I'd rather say, if we even add overpairs here:

      Board: J:club: 8:club: T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    41.96%  38.08%   3.88% { JsTc }
      UTG+1  58.04%  54.16%   3.88% { TT+, 88, Q9s, JTs, J8s, 97s, Q9o, JTo, J8o, 97o }

      So we are behind here, at the best a break-even spot. That's almost the equity we need. So I'd just fold the hand, not worth risking unless I know that he is spewing, but he doesn't look like that.

      Best Regards.
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      What about his play? He had a good stats, so I don't think he would push all-in if he hit a set or straight. The only think he would do that is to protect his hand like over-pair or maybe a set? Actually I kinda called here for this reason.


      Board: J:club: 8:club: T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    44.01%  42.99%   1.02% { TT+, 88 }
      UTG+1  55.99%  54.97%   1.02% { JsTc }


      One more thing I have a loose image preflop like 32/17 if we take this into consideration. Do you think my call here is more on the good side or on the bad side?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by cpers
      What about his play? He had a good stats, so I don't think he would push all-in if he hit a set or straight. The only think he would do that is to protect his hand like over-pair or maybe a set? Actually I kinda called here for this reason.


      Board: J:club: 8:club: T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    44.01%  42.99%   1.02% { TT+, 88 }
      UTG+1  55.99%  54.97%   1.02% { JsTc }


      One more thing I have a loose image preflop like 32/17 if we take this into consideration. Do you think my call here is more on the good side or on the bad side?
      Why do you think he wouldn't shove in first place with sets here? We can't exclude them. He is also shipping on such a drawy board with sets. And as I said, I really doubt that we can put all his overpairs into the range of limp.

      Also your loose image 32/17 is horrible play-style. You most likely have a huge leak in your play, way too huge ratio between VPIP/PFR.
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      Why do you think he wouldn't shove in first place with sets here?
      :s_cry: Made a mistake again. I thought he pushed right away. Forgot about my raise there. I think I really need to train my concentration skill. With two pair, it's better to raise it on the flop and check how I stand right?

      Also your loose image 32/17 is horrible play-style.
      It's just a stats on one table. Do you think it's necessary to maintain your stats on a table on purpose? Because I don't usually do that. I mean if you get a lot of small PPs on a table, this will widen the gap of vp/pf ratio, right? So to get them where it's supposed to be, do you mean I should tighten up my range just for the sake of stats?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      With two pair, it's better to raise it on the flop and check how I stand right?

      Well, most likely I'd still raise to protect our hand. And act accordingly the opponent. Sometimes I might even play for the stacks if I see him having really wide range. But it ain't the case with that opponent. Another possibility would be of course to play here for pot control especially for that reason that he will anyways have hard time Calling with just a draw and we don't want to see any draw+pair to ship here.

      It's just a stats on one table. Do you think it's necessary to maintain your stats on a table on purpose? Because I don't usually do that. I mean if you get a lot of small PPs on a table, this will widen the gap of vp/pf ratio, right?

      Oh, if it's just one table then sure, pretty standard. Just thought you had overall stats like that. :D

      So to get them where it's supposed to be, do you mean I should tighten up my range just for the sake of stats?

      Nah, not really. Guess I just misunderstood you.