NL2 variance

    • AndyWB
      AndyWB
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      Joined: 23.10.2011 Posts: 36
      Is NL2 known for worse variance than say NL25?

      I will admit right now that today has been pretty bad for morons turning up playing horrifically against me but getting away with it and then passing the chips to someone else. I know that I should be licking my lips when these fools turn up but I'm just running bad with them at the moment.

      Feel better for having a bit of a rant anyways :tongue:
  • 18 replies
    • Castle93
      Castle93
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      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      people think the varience is worse because theres more perceived bad beats like AA vs Q6o, but it should actually have less in theory as there lots of donks which give you a bigger edge and therefore less varience
    • thejugador
      thejugador
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      Joined: 17.10.2009 Posts: 51
      thats true,but a leak of mine is Im paying off players too much when they get lucky and I have a pretty good hand but am beat.and its possibily taking away the profit from my big hands that I win.
    • Xeonz123
      Xeonz123
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      Joined: 22.08.2011 Posts: 264
      Originally posted by Castle93
      people think the varience is worse because theres more perceived bad beats like AA vs Q6o, but it should actually have less in theory as there lots of donks which give you a bigger edge and therefore less varience
      +1
    • IngridN
      IngridN
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      Joined: 02.03.2011 Posts: 12,162
      Hi guys,

      I've moved your thread where it's more appropriate :)

      Ingrid
    • musashi87
      musashi87
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      Joined: 14.03.2008 Posts: 11,847
      Originally posted by Xeonz123
      Originally posted by Castle93
      people think the varience is worse because theres more perceived bad beats like AA vs Q6o, but it should actually have less in theory as there lots of donks which give you a bigger edge and therefore less varience
      +1
      not true

      It's true that it's hard to be loosing there( you do not expirience many downswings) cos you have big edge over other players. On the other hand tho there are many agro players and hands going all-in before river which increases variance.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
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      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Well I've been playing NL2 for a really long time and I must say I don't really experience a big variance. I had to apply my stop loss only 2 times.
      I think if you think a little bit it's easy to beat NL2, sure you can have a rough day but it doesn't last for very long...
    • musashi87
      musashi87
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      Joined: 14.03.2008 Posts: 11,847
      Originally posted by RasTweet
      Well I've been playing NL2 for a really long time and I must say I don't really experience a big variance. I had to apply my stop loss only 2 times.
      I think if you think a little bit it's easy to beat NL2, sure you can have a rough day but it doesn't last for very long...
      You confuse experiencing variance with having positive winrate.

      i.e. Your normal winrate at this lvl should be around 5bb/100h but you only have 2bb/100h
      you don't see it as variance getting to you but she(? :D ) really does.

      Just check your std deviation in Pt3 for NL2/NL5/NL10 and you will se that highest is at NL2 even if your winrate is highest there.
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
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      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      interesting question, i never really thought about this and assumed the same as the others.

      i guess i should listen to the guy with the degree in math :D

      does anyone know how to check the std deviation in hem?
    • musashi87
      musashi87
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      Joined: 14.03.2008 Posts: 11,847
      Originally posted by purplefizz
      interesting question, i never really thought about this and assumed the same as the others.

      i guess i should listen to the guy with the degree in math :D

      does anyone know how to check the std deviation in hem?
      How do I find my standard deviation in Hold'em Manager?
      On the far left of the Reports tab in Hold'em Manager, click on the + sign. Now add the standard deviation and save.
    • gadget51
      gadget51
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      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      In HM2, go to ->Reports tab -> click the (very small) 'stats' tab just left of 'Total Hands' then in 'Available Statistics' column, click 'ALL' ->scroll down to 'S' (alphabetically listed) and you can now add 'Std Dev bb' for Standard Deviation in big blinds - or 'Std Dev BB' for Standard Deviation in BB (Big Bets).

      Easier than I made it look honest!

      have fun.
    • thejugador
      thejugador
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      Joined: 17.10.2009 Posts: 51
      whats a good standard deviation to have?,I guess it depends how tight/loose you are.
    • pyure
      pyure
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      Joined: 25.09.2008 Posts: 258
      Here's a quick example for why I believe there's more variance at the micros:

      We have AA - we raise, get 3bet and shove. Villian calls. At higher stakes we can assume he has a fairly tight range - lets say AJ+ and 99+ maybe which gives us roughly 85% equity.

      Now imagine the same situation against a much looser opponent playing any "pretty" looking hand and the equity calculation works out almost exactly the same.

      The difference is that the looser micro limit players are making these calls alot more often then the better players, hence more variance.
    • musashi87
      musashi87
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      Joined: 14.03.2008 Posts: 11,847
      Look at this 100k hands simulation.
      1) lower variance lower winrate (let's say it's NL 20-50)
      std dev = 10 bb/100
      winrate = 2 bb/100

      longest break even 28.1k hends


      2) higher variance higher winrate (let's say it's NL 2-5)
      std dev = 20 bb/100
      winrate = 5 bb/100

      longest break even 22.1k hends


      You see that longest possible break even time is in 1st example even so it has smaller variance.
    • esuohdla
      esuohdla
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      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 411
      Variance at a limit depends almost completely on your playstyle. If your playing like a nit you will probably experience less variance than a LAG.
    • musashi87
      musashi87
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      Joined: 14.03.2008 Posts: 11,847
      Originally posted by esuohdla
      Variance at a limit depends almost completely on your playstyle. If your playing like a nit you will probably experience less variance than a LAG.
      Sure thing but U will also decrease your winrate.
      Variance depends on your playstyle and on playstyle of your opponents tho.
    • AndyWB
      AndyWB
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      Joined: 23.10.2011 Posts: 36
      This generated loads more replies than I expected, so thanks to all.

      I guessed variance would be higher as the shove call range is ludicrous with some players (97o) in the hand that got me cross. It really shouldn't matter as my edge more than makes up for it but it's still good to know (and also let off steam!)

      Will keep grinding away and plug the massive leak my friend pointed out. If nothing else NL2 is a safe place to learn and try stuff out.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
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      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Originally posted by AndyWB
      This generated loads more replies than I expected, so thanks to all.

      I guessed variance would be higher as the shove call range is ludicrous with some players (97o) in the hand that got me cross. It really shouldn't matter as my edge more than makes up for it but it's still good to know (and also let off steam!)

      Will keep grinding away and plug the massive leak my friend pointed out. If nothing else NL2 is a safe place to learn and try stuff out.
      Best of luck Andy and a big sincere thank you to all members for chipping in here.

      It's so nice to see you all helping each other out. This is why this community is the absolute nuts imo!

      Best regards,
      Gary
    • Heave112
      Heave112
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      Joined: 27.03.2009 Posts: 456
      no clue, it sounds like chinese :D