[NL2-NL10] Kk

    • cozacu
      cozacu
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 1,379
      Known players:
      CO = ($9.66)
      BU = ($12.50)
      SB = ($4.56)
      BB = ($7.11) villain 47/14 af4.0 cbet100 fcbet50 66hands
      MP2 (Hero) = ($13.02)
      MP3 = ($10.87)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K :heart: , K :club: .
      Hero raises to $0.40, 4 folds, BB calls $0.30.

      Flop: ($0.85) 8 :heart: , A :spade: , K :spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.10, BB calls $0.70.

      Turn: ($3.05) Q :club: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $2.05, BB calls $1.65.

      River: ($7.15) J :heart: (2 players)
      BB raises to $3.56(All-In), Hero calls $3.56.
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      while he might have some random TX like AT KT QT JT T8, he could also have a ton of busted flushdraws or even play sets in a stupid manner.

      You are getting 25% pot odds

      What you lose to
      AT (12 combos)
      KT (4 combos)
      QT/JT (32 combos)
      T8s (3 combos)

      51 combos (now you need him to only have at least 17 bluff combos to have the necessary odds to call here)

      What you beat
      -Busted Flushdraws (perhaps at least 20-30 combos?) - A VPIP 47 player plays a lot of suited junk
      -random 2pairs or 88 (5-10 combos?)

      While he is not going to valuebet worse that often, he's still a donk and we won't know for sure, especially given such great odds, we have to call. If it was a pot size bet on the river then our odds will be 33% and this would be much closer then. If it was an overbet then I would lean towards a fold, because a T is very much in his range, especially gutshots like QT and JT.
    • cozacu
      cozacu
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 1,379
      Ty coach
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      flop - raise size ~ 1.75
      turn - over pot size shove - 4.96$ (his stack) (pot 4.35)
      -------> he is going to call anyway whit his 2pairs, 88 and probably draws.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello cozacu,

      Flop: Well, as we see you have a huge leak in raise/bet sizes. :) You have to fix it or you just in long run will either loose too much money or not win enough. The raise size should be here ~pot size, which would be 3x his bet size + pot = ?

      As played
      Turn: He doesn't have much left anymore, I don't really see why we should raise so small. While our normal raise would be more than half of his stack then just ship it here.

      As played
      River: For the given odds and our bad play, well... there ain't even much to comment. Should re-read about previous street and wouldn't even be here.

      Best Regards.
    • cozacu
      cozacu
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 1,379
      thx veriz for breaking it down.I can see you are right.That was a really bad play
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by cozacu
      thx veriz for breaking it down.I can see you are right.That was a really bad play
      From mistakes we learn. :)