[NL2-NL10] NL2 FR AKs

    • keoghh
      keoghh
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.07.2011 Posts: 857
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $2
      MP3:
      $1.94

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with A:spade: , K:spade:
      Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.08, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($0.19) Q:spade: , 9:heart: , 2:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.1, MP3 raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10.

      Turn: ($0.59) 8:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.38, Hero calls $0.38.

      River: ($1.35) A:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 raises $1.28 (All-In), Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $2.63

      Should i fold turn, and if not is fold on river correct?
  • 3 replies
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      nice fold :) his flop raise stinks but then this does give you awesome implied odds if you hit AS LONG as the board doesn't pair. but i don't think folding on the turn is a mistake either - after all you aren't getting the correct pot odds to profitably call on just a flush draw (assuming you need to beat a set/2pair maybe even a straight because i think he could sometimes raise an OESD). i'm not entirely sure whether calling the turn is slightly overplaying but definitely a good fold on the river given that you hit.
    • MrMauve
      MrMauve
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.04.2008 Posts: 18
      Fair warning: I'm answering this as part of my NL beginners course homework, I'm only "Gold" status because I bought HEM2, not because I'm experienced, and my instincts are pretty tight and passive, so take anything I say with a pinch of salt. That said, nice to meet you 8^)

      The turn lays you 97:38 odds, or 2.55:1. You can't call his turn bet purely on the basis of your flush draw pot odds - you need to believe in your heart either that you can get about at least 60 cents more off him on the river (as 97+60 : 38 is about 4.1:1, which are the pot odds you need for 9 flush outs), or that spiking an Ace or King on the river will be good enough to take the pot down, or some mixture of both.

      So say a spade comes on the river. If you bet 60 cents (pot is $1.35), he has to call that every single time for you to break even, so you have to bet more. If you bet 90 cents, he has to call that at least 2 times out of 3. If you bet pot, that puts him all-in for $1.28, and he has to call that about half the time for you to make money. Are these realistic? I think they look a bit hopeful.

      Did you think that your Ace and King were live, i.e. that he might have called your raise with QJs or something? If so, it might have been worth sticking in a small bet on the river, which is for value if he is willing to call it down with a pair of Queens, and cuts down his options for betting on the river as he basically has to go all-in over the top of you (you didn't know that he was going to go all-in anyway, he may have preferred to bet 70c or something). That might be a waste of money though and I'll defer to a real coach on that one - it might be that every hand you beat folds when an ace comes.

      I think you should have folded the turn, on balance, as it will be tough to get paid off enough if a third spade comes up. As played I think folding the river is right, and maybe throwing in a blocking bet with your Aces would have been even better.

      One other thing - I think I'd have bet a bit more on the flop, maybe 15-20c, as your bet doesn't really convey the message "I have made top pair and am protecting it from draws", nor does it start to build up a big pot - your draw is strong enough to withstand a lot of action at this point. Even if he only calls your raise with 22-JJ (hoping to make a set), you're actually ahead on the flop:


      Board: Q:spade: 9:heart: 2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+2  50.66%  50.66%   0.00% { AsKs }
      MP3    49.34%  49.34%   0.00% { JJ-22 }


      If you imagine that he might call your raise with suited aces and suited broadway, maybe some suited connectors, you can feel even better about betting the flop. Also if you bet more he's less likely to raise and seize the initiative. Think about it - he only had to spend 10c to get the initiative on the turn, which is good value for money!

      One final point - if he has a set, he was probably hoping to make more than 58c off you, so he's probably posting this hand in another forum saying "did I overbet the river?" :D

      That's what I think, can't wait to hear from someone who actually knows their stuff!
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello keoghh,

      Flop: Why do you CB so small?

      As played
      Turn: Just fold it, while being OOP you most likely wont get the implied odds and we can't be sure that we even will get his stack on the river when draw completes, since we have to ship it into him.

      Best Regards.