[NL2-NL10] Nl4 Aj

    • 0744379
      0744379
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 435
      Party, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $5.31 (132.8 bb)
      BB: $4 (100 bb)
      BTN: $3.67 (91.8 bb)
      CO: $4 (100 bb)
      MP2: $3.90 (97.5 bb)
      UTG+2: $2.29 (57.3 bb)
      MP1: $4.29 (107.3 bb)
      MP3: $6.06 (151.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J A
      6 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, BB calls $0.12

      Flop: ($0.32) 8 T Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.23, BB calls $0.23

      Turn: ($0.78) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.56, BB calls $0.56

      River: ($1.90) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.90, BB raises to $3.05 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.15

      Results: $8 pot ($0.40 rake)
      Final Board: 8 T Q K 3
      Hero showed J A and won $7.60 ($3.60 net)
      BB mucked Q K and lost (-$4 net)

      I think villain has 2-pair or a bluff often enough for me to make this call. He has stats of 12/8/6.1 for 170 hands. This sample is too small for the 3bet to be accurate so I put him on a range according to his VPIP and the action of

      TT,88,AJs,KQs,KTs,As9s,Js9s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,6s4s,AQo-AJo,KQo

      From which I have 67% equity. If I take out the AQ hands which are essentially bluffs I have 59% equity and need 37% to call.

      What do you think?
  • 3 replies
    • ShaQQ
      ShaQQ
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2008 Posts: 162
      WP, my days villain overplayed his hand, don't even think it's a right spot to really turn 2p into a bluff, I kinda like the blocker bet on the river but I don't think it's necessary, you have the best hand so often and you really want to squeeze out max value. Trying to think of hands I block bet rivers here and really struggling, I guess marginal 2p's or kinda Ax with pairs and the As but for the most part I'm wanting to get to SD cheap with said holdings. With stats of 12/8 I don't think villain has many flushes in his range especially with the board, AJs I guess :D Anyway, again WP and gl.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello 0744379,

      Well, here I really wouldn't like to see the results. :D But the question here is really, what we should do on the river? Most likely while his range may easily be a lot worse I'd consider first of all Bet bigger ~$1,20 on the river.

      As played well, the question is really up to you. Do you ever think that he could be value-raising 2pairs here? Since from my view I see the 2pairs are pretty much turned into bluff. There are already a lot of hands which beat him and he has to be really bad player to be doing that. No worse will Call him anyways. So if he is rather thinking player and not over-valuing his 2pairs then most likely I'd even Bet/Fold the river. But if you think he is capable of doing that as well with 2pairs then Calling is fine for the given odds.

      Best Regards.
    • 0744379
      0744379
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 435
      Well to be honest shaq I didnt play it as a block bet I guess I put opponent on an even weaker range and was hoping to be called by 2 pair or worse.

      When he raised so much my first instinct was to fold but when I thought about it that was quit a large re-raise for value by him and if I had a made hand in his position I wouldnt raise so much so it made me lean towards him having a weaker part of his range.

      I think I was involved in a couple of other tricky pots where he took unusual lines so maybe that influenced my decision too. I see people overplaying their two-pairs very often on this limit but I dont think it is something I should take as fact :D . Thanks for the analysis guys