[NL2-NL10] A little overplayed 88?

    • HansTheGreat
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,808
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 8.
      4 folds, MP3 raises to $0.17, Hero calls $0.17, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.41) 2, 6, 7 (2 players)
      MP3 bets $0.19, Hero calls $0.19.

      Turn: ($0.79) 4 (2 players)
      MP3 bets $0.38, Hero raises to $1.75, MP3 calls $1.19(All-In).

      River: ($4.11) 4 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $4.11.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows two pairs, eights and fours(8 8).
      MP3 shows a pair of fours(J T).

      Hero wins with two pairs, eights and fours(8 8).

      MP3 stats:18/15/6.0/Cbet 100%(5)/127 hands
  • 6 replies
    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      hehe. Indeed, I think a bit overplayed ;) (regardless of results; remember next time not to post them).

      Against this opponent it might be the case you won one time, but I think in the long run you will often find yourself vs. a bigger pair, a bigger pair w/ a higher diamond, or even a bigger flush.

      On the other hand, pay attention to his bet sizes. Betting 1/2 pot there might well be a tell from his part.
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      I like the fact that you weren't afraid to call on the flop. You are definitely getting the right odds against his range. The truth though is that the same applies to the turn. If he has you beat you don't want to put in more money. There are a good number of hands that play like this that can have you beat. If you raise though the other decent number of hands that you do beat which he has in his range FOLD.

      He didn't fold in this case and you should take note of it. Usually though he has hands like medium overpairs (88-JJ) or some kind of medium pair like 56, 78, 79, etc with a flushdraw and of course the sets or better which are not that many combos of. Against this range you get the odds to call his 1/2 pot bets but when you raise you isolate yourself against what beats you.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sikac,

      The question is here, what kind of range he could be opening from MP3. As we see 15% PFR here we can consider doing it rather loose for FR game. Against his 100% CBetting range:

      Board: 2:diamond: 6:diamond: 7:diamond:  4:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    34.39%  34.14%   0.25% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
      UTG+1  65.61%  65.37%   0.25% { 8d8c }

      We getting the equity. But now the main question? You actually did put out the CB on flop most likely. The guy could be easily playing CB flop & Check/Fold on turn, that's the problem. Neither I wouldn't base much about his bet sizes here since he is so short which could make him pick such bet sizes.

      First thing I'd base here is the turn CB. Of course we don't have enough of hands on him but should give a small overview of him anyways.

      At the same time I'd rather be inclined to raise the flop actually where his CBetting there is really wide and protect my hand from overcards. Since we most likely don't want to see 2nd barreling while we don't have enough of information on him for that.

      Also I doubt that he would 2nd barrel there with pure air, most likely it's still towards to rather made hand or at least have some draw himself:

      Board: 2:diamond: 6:diamond: 7:diamond:  4:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    55.35%  55.35%   0.00% { 99+, 77-44, 22, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AhKd, AsKd, AcKd, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AsJd, AcJd, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTd, AsTd, AcTd, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KsQd, KcQd, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KsJd, KcJd, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTd, KsTd, KcTd, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QsJd, QcJd }
      UTG+1  44.65%  44.65%   0.00% { 8d8c }

      So most likely if we do ship there then with his stack is also going to Call us. We would need the equity of 40% which makes our hand played correctly if we expect him to play with at least such a range and you can consider going broke.

      Best Regards.
    • HansTheGreat
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,808
      So you think it was OK for me too ship it there? I got the opinion that you think it is?
    • Wriggers
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      I think saying his range is loose because of a 15% PFR in MP3 isn't correct here, we only have ~130 hands on him, which is a really small sample. To give you an idea, I had 250 hands at a table last night (FR) and was playing 31/27, whilst on another table with the same amount of hands I was playing 5/5.

      I'd say all his stats tell us here are that he's not playing out of line and is probably playing ABC TAG style. These NL5 ABC TAG styles like to cbet everything, so it doesn't surprise me to see a 100% cbet, their general style works on NL5, open and cbet. But then usually they shut down on the turn when they have pure air. So his cbet on the turn to me indicates that he has at the very least highish flushdraw. I think TP here would check/call a lot of the time, but that's not to say we should rule it out of his range.

      I think I would flat his turn bet and then depending on the river card (If it's another diamond i fold to another bet since there is no way he 3barrels on a 4 to a flush board without a flush) I will call another bet of about the same size.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Sikac
      So you think it was OK for me too ship it there? I got the opinion that you think it is?
      Yep, it's OK to ship there while he doesn't even have a full stack. No point to Call anyways since on the river you may easily just see only worse cards for us. Any overcard/any where we just can't be sure where we stand. Either I am shipping the turn or just folding.