[NL2-NL10] Did I really fold correctly?

    • HansTheGreat
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,806
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, BU folds, SB calls $0.18, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.45) 9, A, 9 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.33, SB calls $0.33.

      Turn: ($1.11) 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.80.

      River: ($2.71) T (2 players)
      SB bets $2.92, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $2.71.

      SB stats: 32/5/3.8(highest on the river 7.0)/WTSD 22%/W$SD 14%/98 hands
  • 3 replies
    • Echoes88
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 1,665
      hmmm, normally i fold here, but his wonatsd is really low, even on this small sample. The problem is, that th fd got there, + he can easlily have 9xs as well. Fold i think better.
    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Hi, Sikak.

      I think it's very close actually. Unfortunately 98 hands are not enough for us to get to know his tendencies... even with a river AF so high, in 98 hands you only go so many times to ther river, so the sample is too small for any decent reference.

      You only need to be ahead roughly 1/3 of the time to make it breakeven... which you might of course but maybe not with as big a margin we would like.

      Just for fun, I ran a (linear) 35% range distribution (we can't even assume that's his VPIP long term, and it's probably more from the SB) on that board. He will have you beat 25% of the time. However, we need to exclude all his fold to cbet on the flop AND on the turn (info we don't have). If he folds 33% on the flop (very low!) he now jumps to beat you some 37% (25/67). If he folds yet another 25% on the turn (very low!) he is beating you 1/2 the time (mostly what you do beat are many Ax combos he has). So, like said, we're not exactly fistpumping.

      Then again, I just did that out of fun. It all boils down to what range he donks potsize on the river - and I strongly do not think he does that with Ax (the large part of his range we actually beat). Yes, he could do as a pure bluff, but could you tell me a range for him to be bluffing with? I mean, a holding he could call flop and turn with and then had to bluff river. Don't forget you even lose to AT (which you make sense to play like that if he is bad).

      So yeah, for me folding looks fine.

      If you are observing the villain and he does that a lot, some times you will have to bluffcatch and call - but that does not mean you have to call every time at all. Especially at these limits and versus these players, where your edge is bigger and you don't have to tangle yourself into very close/marginal spots.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sikac,

      Not much you can do in this spot. You will be more often face a strong hand there afterwards our Bet on flop & turn. Good fold!

      Best Regards.