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[NL2-NL10] [FR] NL10 - ATs flush draw facing shove on turn

    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,268
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($3.15)
      BB ($4.85)
      UTG ($9.50)
      UTG+1 ($3.70)
      UTG+2 ($3.50)
      MP1 ($3.75)
      MP2 ($15.42)
      Hero ($20.89)
      CO ($3.20)
      BTN ($5.60)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: T:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, fold, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.35, UTG+1 calls $0.35

      FLOP ($1.80) 4:diamond: J:diamond: 3:heart:

      SB bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $0.90

      TURN ($4.50) 4:diamond: J:diamond: 3:heart: 6:spade:

      SB bets $0.65, BB raises to $3.50 (AI), Hero ????

      PF: raise to isolate fishy UTG+1, doesnt work....
      FLOP played by odds...
      TURN quickly tried to calculate my odds, thought i had 2.8~:1 then got confused on my equity :f_ugly: .......

      This is what i got when I evaluated it in Equilator:

      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation completed... 3,036 games processed in 0 seconds.

      Board: 4djd3h 6s
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 24.704 % 24.704 % 0.000 % 75.296 % AdTd
      Player 2: 75.296 % 75.296 % 0.000 % 24.704 % TT+, 55-33, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo


      ----------------------------------------


      Its probably a snap fold but id like your opinions on it :f_biggrin:

      Hero folds, SB calls $1.15 (AI)

      RIVER ($8.10) 4:diamond: J:diamond: 3:heart: 6:spade: A:spade:

      SB shows T:spade: J:spade: (Pre 18%, Flop 18.4%, Turn 11.4%)

      BB shows Q:spade: Q:club: (Pre 82%, Flop 81.6%, Turn 88.6%)

      BB wins $7.56
  • 3 replies
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Yeah you absolutely have to fold the turn here. You have a nut maximum of 12 outs, meaning a 24% chance of hitting vs top pair, and that's the bottom of his range, and vs a set you have ~14% chance of winning so you have to fold.

      I don't know any info about villain's but raising the flop isn't a bad idea if they're fishy, because then you can get it in with about 50% equity, plus you get some fold equity against random donked middle pairs that beat you :)
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,268
      thank you for the evaluation! :D

      How was the range i assigned villain in Equilator, was it decent?

      initial plan was to isolate the fish, he was pretty bad from what i can remember...
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by gxtwo
      thank you for the evaluation! :D

      How was the range i assigned villain in Equilator, was it decent?

      initial plan was to isolate the fish, he was pretty bad from what i can remember...
      Most likely something similar but could even be wider while he is loose opponent.