[NL2-NL10] I think I can call the turn?

    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2 (Hero):
      $7.30
      MP3:
      $1.93
      CO:
      $2.75
      BU:
      $5.88
      SB:
      $3.48
      BB:
      $8.50
      UTG2:
      $2.00
      MP1:
      $7.18


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, K.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 4 folds, BB raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.30.

      Flop: ($1.02) 3, 6, 3 (2 players)
      BB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40.

      Turn: ($1.82) 9 (2 players)
      BB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00.

      River: ($3.82) Q (2 players)
      BB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00.

      Final Pot: $5.82.
      Results follow:


      Hero shows two pairs, queens and threes(Q K).BB shows two pairs, tens and threes(T T).Hero wins with two pairs, queens and threes(Q K).


      BB stats:93/19/2.6/3bet 22%/ flop and turn cbet 100%/114 hands
  • 5 replies
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Why not raise the flop IP there? With a large 3bet and such a fishy player you must have some sort of fold equity, and even if he's getting it in with 77-JJ we've got almost 50% equity here, so a raise is profitable in my opinion. We can fold out a lot of his Ax type hands that are currently beating us and when he shoves and we get it in we're never in awful shape (Unless he has 66 ofcourse).

      As played on the turn we're getting 2.8:1 odds and if we count our overcards as outs we need ~2:1 to call, so we can call here profitably :)
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Originally posted by Wriggers
      Why not raise the flop IP there? With a large 3bet and such a fishy player you must have some sort of fold equity, and even if he's getting it in with 77-JJ we've got almost 50% equity here, so a raise is profitable in my opinion. We can fold out a lot of his Ax type hands that are currently beating us and when he shoves and we get it in we're never in awful shape (Unless he has 66 ofcourse).

      As played on the turn we're getting 2.8:1 odds and if we count our overcards as outs we need ~2:1 to call, so we can call here profitably :)
      I didnt raise as we are to deep(I almost 150BB and he 170BB) and I didnt wanna see a 3bet or shove. Is this an argument for a call?
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Well it is an argument for a call if we want to reduce variance, but i'm not sure it's the most +EV move since he seems very fishy and will likely get all in with TP or any overpair, but will also fold a lot of Ax types of hands that already have us beat at the moment. Plus when we get it in we're just never in awful shape unless he shows the nut flush draw (Still have 24% equity there) or 66.

      So I guess it comes down to whether you want to reduce variance (As I doubt he's stacking off with 77-TT on the river if the flush completes and there's an overcard out there) or if you want to make potentially the most +EV move over the long run.
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Originally posted by Wriggers
      Well it is an argument for a call if we want to reduce variance, but i'm not sure it's the most +EV move since he seems very fishy and will likely get all in with TP or any overpair, but will also fold a lot of Ax types of hands that already have us beat at the moment. Plus when we get it in we're just never in awful shape unless he shows the nut flush draw (Still have 24% equity there) or 66.

      So I guess it comes down to whether you want to reduce variance (As I doubt he's stacking off with 77-TT on the river if the flush completes and there's an overcard out there) or if you want to make potentially the most +EV move over the long run.
      I know that it isn t the most +EV but I try to avoid variance as much as possible. If I would have 100 BB i would follow you line but so it is much harder.
      So let s assume I go your way. I raise his bet or shove?How much? If he calls the turn check back or raise? All in all, how would you have played it.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sikac,

      While even being deeper you can very easily raise there. He will rarely go for 3bet in anyway way with just overpairs and most likely rather take pot control. Also we will achieve with the raise that we will gain fold equity and of course might even get a free card for river if he Checks the turn and we are able to Check it behind, which kinda equals the same money as we would Call the flop & turn.

      Best Regards.