200NL downswing MSS

    • jowy88
      jowy88
      Gold
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 3,686
      Hi everyone,

      I'm from the French community, sorry for mistackes, english isn't my mother tong.

      I'm actually testing the MSS Strategy at 100NL and 200NL FR and SH games.
      I ran quite good during my 40k first hand, however I'm actually in downswing.

      I don't know if it's standard or not to run so bad in a few time at MSS, we don't have midstacke MSS players in the french community.

      I never use the 'call button' preflop, I'm all the time the guy who raise, if someone raised before me, I 3bet or I fold. I dislike cc without implied odds. So I have an aggressive style with lots of 3bet and 4bet.


      my graph :




      And my stats :








      Do you think that it's a standard downswing?

      Thx for your help!
  • 31 replies
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hi Jowy 88

      I can't help you because I'm a micro stackes player.

      But I have a question for you. If i look at your stats I see you are losing on NL50. My question is why do you move up to NL100/NL200 if you are losing on NL50? maybe this is not your whole database, but it does look weird.

      Regards
      RasTweet
    • jowy88
      jowy88
      Gold
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 3,686
      Hi

      I was playing MSS on NL50, NL100 and NL200 at the same time, because my BR was enough for those limits. There are not a lot of player on French rooms, so I have to play diffenret limits.

      I was loosing at NL50 (-2.5bb/100) but winning at NL100 (1bb/100) and winning at NL200 (3bb/100) before my downswing.

      And Thx to rakeback it was very nice.... but now I'm loosing on all limits because I lost 2.2k€ in 6000hands it represent only 1day of grind for me. So yesterday I was a winner. And today I'm a looser.

      My BR is still enough to play NL200 but, if I continue like this I will have to move down.
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Originally posted by jowy88
      I never use the 'call button' preflop, I'm all the time the guy who raise, if someone raised before me, I 3bet or I fold. I dislike cc without implied odds. So I have an aggressive style with lots of 3bet and 4bet.

      Thx for your help!
      Than most regs can abuse you easily. Their value range will +ev your shoving range + folding range.

      Something like this kind of calculation, taken from mbml's blog:
      Originally posted by mbml
      I have been shoving A2o and A5s type of hands very often and I'm often wrong to do so. I'll just use this guy as an example cos he's an extreme example in terms of 3betting me like crazy. Most other guys are tighter with like 17-20% 3bet vs BU so I'll work that out another time.

      Working out Optimal Preflop Strategy vs SSers restealing, 40bb

      We minraise to $8 and they 3bet to $22. We shove 160 into the pot, risking another 152 to win 30$ (i ignore blinds, assuming they get raked away)

      Villain 1

      3bets 28% vs BU, Value Range: A9+, 22+, KQ (will 3bet KJ from SB, flats KJ from BB vs minraise and 3bets vs larger raise or tighter range).
      Since I am loose and minraise, KJo is not in his range in BB vs me.

      BU v SB - Value range = 14%
      50% of the time, he folds and I win 30
      50% of the time, I call and lose 30 to breakeven
      I put in 152 and lose 30 to get back 122$
      122/320 = 38.1% required equity

      22 has 38.4%
      A9o has 38.6% equity
      A3s has 38.2% equity

      KJ doesn't have enough equity to shove but calling is better anyway with KX hands to keep his junk in.

      BU vs BB - Value range = 13%
      53.5% of the time, he folds and I win 30
      46.5% of the time, he calls. 53.5/46.5 X 30 = 34.5 ~ 34
      Put in 152 and lose 34 to get back 118$
      118/320 = 36.875% required equity

      A4s has 36.88% equity
      ATo has 41.668% equity
      KJs has 39.8% equity

      So Only difference I got from this differentiation of positional ranges is that I know I should fold A9o and A3s vs his BB 3bet while shipping vs his SB 3bet.

      I think I will make this into a video so stay tuned. the super marginal parts are probably going to be very villain dependent and you need to work out villain's actual ranges. Most 40bbers have a fold to 4b stat of between 40-50% but some are even lower and you need to tweak your ranges considerably.

      Share the love, force myself to work on this, and also earn some video money :)
    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      Don't play MSS and learn to play poker instead?

      Obviously big swings are going to happen pretty often if you're always only raising, 3betting and 4betting preflop, getting it in preflop with very slight equity advantage on average (if you're not a very good MSSer, even slight disadvantage), you always stack off with TP post flop. How would there not be swings, when you lose money/are BE vs regs and don't take full advantage of fish. When you get it all-in so often and often in very marginal spots. This is what you signed up for when you chose to play MSS, no need to ever make these variance related threads.

      You midstackers are the most annoying players who ruin the games for regs AND fish. There shouldn't be 50bb min tables online. If someone wants to play with a 100$ buy-in he should play 100nl or 50nl deep, not annoy fish and us, poker players, at 200nl.

      Midstack strategy is designed for inexperienced players t not lose money and grind rakeback for when they're starting out. One of the worst things to come out of this site, as I'm pretty sure no other training site teaches this BS.

      I haven't seen a good MSSer at 100 or 200NL yet, so I assume for 90% of MSers it's impossible to beat those limits, at least consistenly.

      Hope that helps, peace.

      P.S. "mother tong" is priceless
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well like it was already said there really isnt much money to be made playing MSS. Your way better off playing nl100 BSS.

      There really isnt that much edge to be had playing MSS. Like you said it yourself you were about 1bb winner overall and when your winrate is that low you easily open yourself up to 50bi swings.

      The best you can hope for playing MSS is to be a breakeven rakeback grinder. I dont think i saw any of the MSS players in my games with a winrate of over 1bb. Most are breakeven or slight losing players living of rakeback. The winrates thy have are about -0.5 to + 0.5bb. And rake will really rape you playing MSS on lower limits since your paying full rake for every pot.
    • jowy88
      jowy88
      Gold
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 3,686
      @ ragney : TY, i saw that in the book 'let there be range' wrote by South and Nguyens.

      I thought It was hard for regs to exploit me, because of my stack... but maybe it's like I was playing and showing my hand at the same time, They don"t have hard decision...

      @ArtisSkirpa : you know, I played NL100 BSS, like 150k hands, I won 4000k€ with rakeback and move up to NL200, I can beat NL100, but I'm loosing at NL200.

      So I thought it was because lots of regs are playing NL200 on french rooms, it's our highstackes xD .

      So my level is too low to beat this limit, I thought that playing MSS is better because I will be break even vs regs, and +ev vs fish... with a lot of rakeback.

      but I'm maybe overestimate the MSS strategy. This variance seems to be unreal... so maybe I'm a very bad MSSer... but I'm still not sure. (only 50k hands)


      Edit : @MatejM47 : woaw, really I didn't thought that 50BI downswing was standard for a MSSer... that's so sick... i'll maybe stop it!
    • z1pz0r
      z1pz0r
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      Do you MSSers actually enjoy the game? I mean all you do is pre-flop game and sometimes you have to figure out whether to fire or not contibet.

      Seems pretty boring and lame to me.

      I can see advantages to playing many tables easily though.
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Originally posted by z1pz0r
      Do you MSSers actually enjoy the game? I mean all you do is pre-flop game and sometimes you have to figure out whether to fire or not contibet.

      Seems pretty boring and lame to me.

      I can see advantages to playing many tables easily though.
      I HATE them!@
    • jowy88
      jowy88
      Gold
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 3,686
      Originally posted by z1pz0r
      Do you MSSers actually enjoy the game? I mean all you do is pre-flop game and sometimes you have to figure out whether to fire or not contibet.

      Seems pretty boring and lame to me.

      I can see advantages to playing many tables easily though.
      I only play for money... so I have no problem with that...
    • Densyosh
      Densyosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2009 Posts: 8,395
      Je suis assez d'accord btw.. mid stake ça peut que te desservir.. je pense que c'est la pire stratégie en NL..

      Mais surtout, avec un 3bet% aussi élevé, normal que tu swingues autant.. A la limite tu peux au moins déjà resserrer ce range si tu veux continuer cette stratégie..

      PS: sorry for this french post but i didn' want to spend too 2 hours to write 3 lines, and moreover, did not wanna offend people because I'm a foreigner who doesn't master this language..
    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      [quote]Originally posted by jowy88
      @ ragney : TY, i saw that in the book 'let there be range' wrote by South and Nguyens.

      I thought It was hard for regs to exploit me, because of my stack... but maybe it's like I was playing and showing my hand at the same time, They don"t have hard decision...
      You're annoying, but we're the ones exploiting you, any decent 100NL+ reg knows how to exploit you or at least break even vs you. The reason we hate you is because you force fish out of pots and force us to play a higher variance game, than we would want to and can't use our skill advantage all that well with these stacks.

      @ArtisSkirpa : you know, I played NL100 BSS, like 150k hands, I won 4000k€ with rakeback and move up to NL200, I can beat NL100, but I'm loosing at NL200.
      150k hands is not a sample size, much less so when you're playing a high variance style. Looking at your graph, you at least ran above equity and it's possible you ran way above your winrate otherwise as well. Guess it's evened out now. I'm not saying for a fact that you can't beat 100nl, but the data provided is certainly no proof.

      So I thought it was because lots of regs are playing NL200 on french rooms, it's our highstackes xD .
      200NL is relatively hard to beat these days. We wouldn't bust our asses off studying and posting hands, watching tons of videos, if 200NL was beatable by jamming A7s preflop and stacking hitting the "All-In" button every time when flopping TP.

      So my level is too low to beat this limit, I thought that playing MSS is better because I will be break even vs regs, and +ev vs fish... with a lot of rakeback.
      In reality you're -EV vs regs and +EV vs fish, not enough fish these days, you know. You're probably winning with rb, but it's sad if that's your goal in poker.

      but I'm maybe overestimate the MSS strategy. This variance seems to be unreal... so maybe I'm a very bad MSSer... but I'm still not sure. (only 50k hands)
      You're probably not bad, the strategy is.
      See this:


      200NL is relatively hard to beat these days. We wouldn't bust our asses off studying and posting hands, watching tons of videos, if 200NL was beatable by jamming A7s preflop and stacking hitting the "All-In" button every time when flopping TP.
      Edit : @MatejM47 : woaw, really I didn't thought that 50BI downswing was standard for a MSSer... that's so sick... i'll maybe stop it!
      Well, let's take your 45 BI downer over 6k hands, part of that comes from your naturally negative winrate, you ran like 20BIs under EV (which is about even now on your whole graph, so that's kind of fair, hand to happen at some point), throw in like 6-12 stacks where you got coolered, possibly a few lost because of tilt, and you're about there. Not that hard. Upswings won't be as big because of your naturally negative winrate and there being no opposite to tilt.
    • antstruk
      antstruk
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2010 Posts: 494
      :( [quote]Originally posted by jowy88
      Hi everyone,

      I'm from the French community, sorry for mistackes, english isn't my mother tong.

      I'm actually testing the MSS Strategy at 100NL and 200NL FR and SH games.
      I ran quite good during my 40k first hand, however I'm actually in downswing.

      I don't know if it's standard or not to run so bad in a few time at MSS, we don't have midstacke MSS players in the french community.

      I never use the 'call button' preflop, I'm all the time the guy who raise, if someone raised before me, I 3bet or I fold. I dislike cc without implied odds. So I have an aggressive style with lots of 3bet and 4bet.


      my graph :




      And my stats :








      Do you think that it's a standard downswing?

      Thx for your help!

      :( Keep Truckin
    • Donkey111
      Donkey111
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2010 Posts: 36
      I find hypocritical to post on PokerStrategy that mid-stacking sucks. If you don't like mid-stacking, don't support PS by writing on their forum and giving them some of your rake. After all, this site supports short/midstack so OP is perfectly right to post here. He is at the right place. Go learn how to play against mid stack instead of complaining.

      I used to use a mid stack strategy when I was playing 200NL live (loose soft field) due to a small bankroll. Just know that you have to expect a smaller win rate by midstacking.

      What is your standard stack size? If it is 35bb, your 3-bet % is probably ok from the blinds but if you have a 50bb+ stack it is surely too aggressive. Last but not least, I would be curious to look at your stats by position.

      Bonne chance
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by jowy88
      @ ragney : TY, i saw that in the book 'let there be range' wrote by South and Nguyens.

      I thought It was hard for regs to exploit me, because of my stack... but maybe it's like I was playing and showing my hand at the same time, They don"t have hard decision...

      @ArtisSkirpa : you know, I played NL100 BSS, like 150k hands, I won 4000k€ with rakeback and move up to NL200, I can beat NL100, but I'm loosing at NL200.

      So I thought it was because lots of regs are playing NL200 on french rooms, it's our highstackes xD .

      So my level is too low to beat this limit, I thought that playing MSS is better because I will be break even vs regs, and +ev vs fish... with a lot of rakeback.

      but I'm maybe overestimate the MSS strategy. This variance seems to be unreal... so maybe I'm a very bad MSSer... but I'm still not sure. (only 50k hands)


      Edit : @MatejM47 : woaw, really I didn't thought that 50BI downswing was standard for a MSSer... that's so sick... i'll maybe stop it!
      The reason the downswing for a MSS player is so high in number of BI lost is because your winrate so low. If your a 9bb winner and hit a downswing you will be losing at -1bb so you will be about break even for a certain number of hands. If you hit the same downswing you will be losing at -9bb since your normal winrate is only 1bb to start with.

      So when a big winning player hits a downswing his losing a little or breaking even for a certain period of time and in you case if you hit the same downswing your losing a lot because your breakeven when running dead average. Add a little tilt to that and you get your graph.

      In the end if you think that grinding for RB is the best way to make the most money out of poker then by all means do it and dont give a shit what anyone else says. If anyone cant stand short stackers then tell them direct them to deep tables.

      But if you wanna make decent cash out of it you pretty much have to hit SNE on stars. Personally i think there's more money to be made getting good at BSS or PLO.
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      @ragney: Lol, I doubt regs are going to be able to exploit a pro MSS'er. If you don't call, you have alot less postflop spots, so majority of it is going to be preflop, therefore a pro MSS'er is going to have alot more experience and be alot better in preflop spots.

      @OP: I think the downswing is probably standard, but I don't think MSS is as profitable as SSS or BSS from what i've seen. Stacks just seem to make things pretty awkward. I think decisions are more clear cut when you play SSS or BSS. Also whilst it may be a standard downswing, you gotta realise that you shouldn't have big downswings often and that perhaps you have some leaks in your game.
    • wazawanga
      wazawanga
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2009 Posts: 1,720
      Originally posted by jowy88
      Hi everyone,

      I'm from the French community, sorry for mistackes, english isn't my mother tong.

      I'm actually testing the MSS Strategy at 100NL and 200NL FR and SH games.
      I ran quite good during my 40k first hand, however I'm actually in downswing.

      I don't know if it's standard or not to run so bad in a few time at MSS, we don't have midstacke MSS players in the french community.

      I never use the 'call button' preflop, I'm all the time the guy who raise, if someone raised before me, I 3bet or I fold. I dislike cc without implied odds. So I have an aggressive style with lots of 3bet and 4bet.


      my graph :




      And my stats :








      Do you think that it's a standard downswing?

      Thx for your help!
      no , that's not a downswing

      you are losing money because you play bad

      if you want to win money you will have to learn how to play good poker

      i hope that set your shit straight and helped

      good luck
    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      Originally posted by Donkey111
      I find hypocritical to post on PokerStrategy that mid-stacking sucks. If you don't like mid-stacking, don't support PS by writing on their forum and giving them some of your rake. After all, this site supports short/midstack so OP is perfectly right to post here. He is at the right place. Go learn how to play against mid stack instead of complaining.

      It's not like PS is all about MSS and SSS, there's actually way more videos and articles for poker players. And I have pokerstrategy to thank for my poker career.
      OP has chosen MSS, which is really high variance, and is posting in a downswing forum, looking for opinions, so I gave mine, which was constructive enough, probably came off a little aggressive because it was intended to.
      I'm not hating on MSS in a MSS startegy forum, those people are doomed already. And I'm certainly not complaining about not being able to beat MSers, I listed the reasons why I don't like playing against them in my last post, so I encourage you to read that.

      I used to use a mid stack strategy when I was playing 200NL live (loose soft field) due to a small bankroll. Just know that you have to expect a smaller win rate by midstacking.
      Totally different game, it's like something between 10nl-25nl online skill wise, so I'm sure those are beatable, but you're still way better off playing fullstacked or deeper.

      @ragney: Lol, I doubt regs are going to be able to exploit a pro MSS'er. If you don't call, you have alot less postflop spots, so majority of it is going to be preflop, therefore a pro MSS'er is going to have alot more experience and be alot better in preflop spots.
      Lol, of course regs are able to exploit any MSS'er. The winning ones anyway. First of all, regs are almost on the same level as far as preflop stacking off ranges go, better preflop overall, beccause we're capable to adjust our ranges depending on table conditions, MSers generally aren't or don't do it well enough. Regs win money from MSers pre by stealing they're blinds because they're incapable of adjusting. It's even easier vs a guy like OP who never ever coldcalls pre.

      As much as MS'ers try to avoid playing poker (playing postflop), we can still coldcall them and then they're completely lost because they can't actually play postflop, so regs win money there. A pro MSer's slight advantage in preflop stacking off spots is completely outweighed by the fact that they can't play poker if they don't get it in pre or on the flop.

      So obviously MS'ing is -EV vs regs and MSers can only beat small stakes and higher with rakeback.

      @OP: I think the downswing is probably standard, but I don't think MSS is as profitable as SSS or BSS from what i've seen. Stacks just seem to make things pretty awkward. I think decisions are more clear cut when you play SSS or BSS. Also whilst it may be a standard downswing, you gotta realise that you shouldn't have big downswings often and that perhaps you have some leaks in your game.
      Of course the downswing is standard when you're most likely a loser long term and catch some bad variance from time to time. And, yes, donswings can happen pretty often. I think never coldcalling pre might already be one of the obvious leaks.
    • jowy88
      jowy88
      Gold
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 3,686
      @Densyosh : J'avoue mais il y a pourtant quelques joueurs de MSS qui ont un très bon winrate... donc c'est tout de même possible. Peut être que descendre à 8% de 3bet serait mieux!

      @ArtisSkirpa (1) : As I said to Densyosh, There is a reg who plays the MSS on NL400 and less, winrate = 4bb/100. So maybe you can beat regs, but maybe 90% of MSSer ar loosing.

      @antstruk : I didn't know this expression, I think that it mean 'you have to persist', so I will continue a little, but if I'm still in downswing maybe I'll stop it... it's hard for me to loose 2k€ in 1 day.


      @Donkey111 : I'm playing 40bb with autorebuy, an I leave the table with 50bb or more. My 3bet stats are :
      MP : 5
      CO : 7
      BU : 9
      SB : 13
      BB : 13
      VS steal : 17


      @MatejM47 : Ok I see, I never thought like this. So when I'm on downswing it's like I was a -10bb/100 loser. I'm actually running like -12bb/100 so maybe a little more because of TILT. We cant play a lot of PLO on French room, only 2-3 tables... and rake is so hard! More rake in our rooms. And with my volume I can be SNE in 2012. That's my goal!


      @fusionpk : That is the question I try to answer : Is MSS > SSS? it's true that MSS is a preflop strategy, post flop you commit so fast so it's not so hard. And regs can't setmining.


      @wazawanga : Thank you, maybe you right, maybe I suck at MSS, but you know I played BSS for 2 years, and I had downswing too, so my 1st question was, "maybe it's normal in MSS?" If I'm still losing lots of money at the end of the week, I'll maybe stop it.


      @ArtisSkirpa (2) : very interesting post, i saw people are adapting to me, but lots of regs didn't do it... my goal is to be SNE? so I thought that MSS is a good idea, because I can play lots of time without hard postflop play.
    • Donkey111
      Donkey111
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2010 Posts: 36
      First, regarding the ethic of short/midstacking, I will redirect everyone interested to NoahSD's blog who is much more eloquent than I am:
      http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/01/the-poker-economy/

      Obviously, some people (like ArtisSkirpa) are so prejudiced against anything but a 100bb+ stack that they write things that are just plain false. Let me clear up a few concepts:

      1. In terms of difficulty:
      SS < Midstack < 100bb stack < deep (200bb+) stack

      In other words, the shallower the stack, the more mechanical it is to play, and the less skilled in poker you are, the more a shorter stack will suit you.

      2. Steal
      You cannot steal the blinds of a mid-stack relentlessly. Well, maybe you can, if the midstacker is a new player who follows PS beginner midstack strategy which is quite tight. But any pro midstacker who is worth his grain of salt will constantly put you to the test with relentless 3-bets. If anything, you should should play a little tighter from the button against a competent midstacker. The midstacker shares something with the short-stacker: they both thrive on fold equity but the mid-stacker has to care about his pot equity a lot more.

      3. Preflop 3b/4b ranges
      No, you cannot adjust your preflop ranges on the fly against a good midstacker. The first reason why I studied midstacking was because I was tired of midstackers exploiting me with their 3-bets and it takes some study to make up a good defensive counter-strategy. In my case I ended up with a rough equilibrium to make sure I was 4-betting enough for value to prevent mid-stacker from blatantly exploiting me. The end result was not intuitive at all: 4betting/stacking off against a 35bb midstack (which is the size I studied) is very different from stacking off against a 100bb stack. If you are as I was before I studied midstacking then let me tell you: you should 4b/stack off a lot looser than you probably think.

      4. Live vs online
      This is generous to say that live is equivalent to 10-25NL online. Maybe on the soft sites it is. On the large ones, if you ask me, I will say that it is easier than 5NL! :rolleyes: I do agree that midstacking online and live is very different, not because live is softer but because you end up multi-way live a lot more often than you do online. That makes midstacking live a completely different beast from online.

      I also agree than you are much better off live with a full stack. In my my case I had no choice as my risk of ruin with a full stack was very high (low BR). Also due to the looser nature of the live games, you have to play a midstack a lot tighter than online. Needless to say than I often ended being bored to death...
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