[NL2-NL10] Decision based on stats

    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Hey guys,

      This thread is part of my Homework 5. So let s start.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $4.98
      CO:
      $4.39
      BU:
      $8.23
      SB (Hero):
      $8.01
      BB:
      $5.30
      UTG1:
      $4.90
      UTG2:
      $5.00
      MP1:
      $4.83
      MP2:
      $5.00


      Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9.
      4 folds, MP3 calls $0.05, CO folds, BU raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.13, 2 folds, MP3 folds.

      Flop: ($0.4) J, 7, 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20.

      Turn: ($0.8) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU checks.

      River: ($0.8) 8 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35.

      Final Pot: $1.5.
      Results follow:


      Hero shows a pair of nines(9 9).BU shows high card queen(T 6).Hero wins with a pair of nines(9 9).


      Preflop: BU stats: 35/29/BU 1st to raise100%(12)/F3bet 67%(15)/277 hands
      As we see he raises from the BU with an incredible wide range. So I checked his Fold to 3bet stat which shows me that he will not call most of his raising range so this will mean he would call us only with high cards or better pairs. So I decide to go for a call as this is I think better because I was OOP. I didn t wanna play a big pot OOP against such a player especially if high cards appear.

      Flop: BU stats: cbet 100%(21)/5.3 on the flop/ raise donk bet 75%(4)
      The flop comes good for us but still I didn t like to donk because of his stat mentioned above. So i checked knowing that he will cbet and I would call.

      Turn: Bu stats: 3.8/cbet 70%(10)
      The key factor. On the turn I check and was expecting a cbet as most of the time he does. But he surprisingly checks which made no sense if he had any Jx or Qx hands. He is way to aggressive to check such hands. So at that point I put him on a draw, worse PP, 7x ,2x or even pure bluffs.

      River: BU stats: WTSD 27%(49)/W$SD 46%(13)/AF river inf
      On the river I didnt bet because I had a hand that has some showdown value against his range and play but still can t get much value from other hands as well we cant stand a raise. So I decided that to check and call the if I get nice odds as happened. I called because of his wide range and his non sense play. The river card completes a straight maybe got two pair but still we got great odds for 3rd pair against a player who has bluffs in his range especially with my passiveness and showing weakness.

      So guys,
      What do you think are my arguments good enough for a call there?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sikac,

      Well, for the given odds of course shouldn't be that huge problem to play it this way. But another option would be even to Check/Raise the flop to protect your hand from overcards and maybe even draws. We don't really want to hero-call the turn again.

      Best Regards.