[NL2-NL10] 33 flush

    • Shady9966
      Shady9966
      Global
      Joined: 31.01.2008 Posts: 1,314
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($3)
      BB ($10.37)
      UTG ($9.90)
      Hero ($11.04)
      CO ($6.84)
      BTN ($21.51)

      Dealt to Hero 3:heart: 3:club:

      UTG calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, fold, SB calls $0.05, BB checks

      FLOP ($0.50) 3:spade: Q:spade: 7:spade:

      SB checks, BB bets $0.38, UTG calls $0.38, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, SB folds, BB raises to $4.50, UTG folds, Hero raises to $10.94 (AI), BB calls $5.77 (AI)

      TURN ($21.42) 3:spade: Q:spade: 7:spade: A:diamond:

      RIVER ($21.42) 3:spade: Q:spade: 7:spade: A:diamond: 6:diamond:

      BB shows 4:spade: J:spade:
      (Pre 49%, Flop 65.6%, Turn 77.3%)

      Hero shows 3:heart: 3:club:
      (Pre 51%, Flop 34.4%, Turn 22.7%)

      BB wins $20.35

      his 16/14 AF1.8 hands 107

      so i'm sure he has the flush i was thinking that i have a lot of out to beat him and hi might also fold some weak flushes somethimes
  • 2 replies
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Hi, Shady9966!

      You villain seems a bit to the tight side and quite passive (unfortunately we don't have a big enough sample for any conclusions).

      If you do know he has the flush, then as you could see you only have 34% equity and that's far from enough to go all in. Don't forget that the villain could play 77 the same way, against which you are crushed.

      The question is if you think he could play this way with a one-spade type of hand. Then you're the one with 70%:


      Board: Q:spade: 7:spade: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    30.10%  30.10%   0.00% { QhJs }
      MP3    69.90%  69.90%   0.00% { 33 }


      Two pairs are very unlikely to play that way, especially considering he is a bit to the tight/passive side and not a maniac. Bare in mind as well he is re-raising you out of position in a multiway pot in which the UTG has also shown interest (by calling) and is still to act! So he is bet/3betting and stating he is ok playing a huge pot out of position against two opponents, one of which raised him. That is tremendous strength he is showing!

      Last thing to keep in mind is this is a limped pot. Avoid going broke on a limped pot unless you have a very strong hand (close to the nuts).

      So: I kind of like your raise but then when he 3bets you like that I think the correct play is to fold. Yes, takes a LOT of discipline, and I'd not fold many times myself, but I think it's the correct one unfortunately.

      Another option is to just call. You have absolute position, you can call, keep the pot small and see a turn. Maybe you can even see a cheap river, try to see if your full house comes and then try to extract from a flush who can't fold. On the flop you have to call $0.38 to a pot of $1.64, that means you need 23% equity. As you've seen, against a flush you do have that so you have yourself a correct call. Considering you have position you can even count on some implied odds in case you hit.

      Does that make sense to you?

      (one last thing: please don't post results as they might influence the evaluation and they shouldn't!)
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Oh, and about the folding the flush... I don't think once he 3bets the flop into two opponents he is ever ever folding a flush there, even if he has 2 :spade: 4 :spade: ...