[NL2-NL10] nl4 Was This an Incorrect Fold?

    • Ghartman
      Ghartman
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2011 Posts: 270
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $6.04
      BB:
      $5.12
      MP2:
      $5
      MP3:
      $13.3
      CO:
      $5
      Hero:
      $5.2

      0.02/0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K:heart: , Q:heart:
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.14, CO calls $0.14, Hero calls $0.14, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($0.48) A:club: , 5:heart: , 3:heart: (3 players)
      MP3 bets $0.36, CO calls $0.36, Hero calls $0.36.

      Turn: ($1.56) 7:spade: (3 players)
      MP3 bets $0.78, CO calls $0.78, Hero folds.




      At the time I thought I had made a good fold but it was bugging me. So I did a little maths today and was surprised to find that it may have been a mathematically incorrect fold? I will admit that I was on tilt a little yesterday from some unreal beats and wasn't thinking straight which affected a few decisions I made. I was in a very aggressive room, both opponents had ridiculous vpip's over 35 as you can see and were opening a hell of a lot of pots but were both a lot more aggressive than usual in this particular pot. This was the spot I had been waiting for but I felt that at least one of them may have had a set. I could definitely have played the flop a lot more aggressively but I wanted to see the turn before making a final decision, maybe that was a mistake in itself. Should I have called/raised the turn and/or what would have been the optimal way to play the hand overall in your opinion? Let me know what you think.

      Thanks
  • 3 replies
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Hi, Ghartman!

      Yes, you do have excellent odds to call the river since your opponent bets so small. And one thing you didn't mention that favours the call is that you have position! That is quite valuable since, were you out of position, you'd have a harder time extracting value from your opponents (would you go for a check/raise? And if they both check behind? Would you bet instead? Etc.). In position you can always extract maximum value. So that counts a lot towards your implied odds as well, i.e., the $ you can still extract on the river.

      Of corse, only bad thing is one of your opponents might have A :heart: x :heart: since they are so loose. But since they are so loose they might often have a lower flush draw as well, so if you do call I don't see how not going broke on the river.

      Regarding your other question, I'd never ever raise turn here! Then again, we're in position and getting excellent odds. By raising against two opponents we risk a lot getting called (thus ruining our odds) and what is our plan if he re-raises?

      Finally, I don't think either has a set. If they did, fireworks would probably be happening as they'd both try to protect from the flush draw. Of course, from time to time they might, but not often. And still, you have decent equity against a set with your second nut flush draw, so being in position I'd go ahead an call. If we were out of position I think it gets much closer, but against this opponents and with these odds I'd probably call as well, since they're prone to make mistakes and/or fall in lost with a small flush thus paying us off if we hit.

      Best regards!
    • Ghartman
      Ghartman
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2011 Posts: 270
      Thanks for the reply Luiz,

      Yes, this particular hand was on my mind. They both had A 10 and the 3rd heart came on the river. I'm not too bothered about the result but, for some reason, I went back and analysed the hand and was quite surprised by the result. I'll try and perfect the maths in situations like these because in the long run I'm sure these are the kind of spots that make the real difference!
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by Ghartman
      Thanks for the reply Luiz,

      Yes, this particular hand was on my mind. They both had A 10 and the 3rd heart came on the river. I'm not too bothered about the result but, for some reason, I went back and analysed the hand and was quite surprised by the result. I'll try and perfect the maths in situations like these because in the long run I'm sure these are the kind of spots that make the real difference!
      Every little thing does. You can take 5BB/100 hands as an ok winrate; so if you make a mistake that costs you 2 or 3 BB in one single hand it will take you ~15 orbits of good play to get back to break even again.

      I'm not saying you should think like that, results oriented thinking is a disaster in poker. I'm just saying to take care with every detail since those details add up immensely throughout the month and make a big impact on winrate. Poker is a game of details.