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[NL2-NL10] QJs flush

    • Shady9966
      Joined: 31.01.2008 Posts: 1,314
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($13.84)
      BB ($18.48)
      UTG ($10.76)
      UTG+1 ($6.51)
      CO ($6.53)
      Hero ($12.34)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BB raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.45) 6:diamond: 8:spade: A:diamond:

      BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      TURN ($2.45) 6:diamond: 8:spade: A:diamond: 8:diamond:

      BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.17, BB calls $1.67

      RIVER ($6.79) 6:diamond: 8:spade: A:diamond: 8:diamond: T:diamond:

      BB bets $15.11 (AI), Hero calls $8.97 (AI)

      Hero shows Q:diamond: J:diamond:
      (Pre 43%, Flop 38.3%, Turn 90.9%)

      BB shows T:heart: A:heart:
      (Pre 57%, Flop 61.7%, Turn 9.1%)

      Hero wins $23.51

      15/13 3bet 5.6 AF 3 hands 55

      should i fold ?turn or river or flop
  • 2 replies
    • toteatoo
      Joined: 15.11.2011 Posts: 250
      On flop your odds against are 4:1 (flush draw) and pot odds 1,95/0,50 = 3,9:1 - almost 4:1 and it is probable, that villain will add remaining $0.05 later, moreover you backdoor straight draw, therefore you definitely shouldn't fold on flop.

      On turn your flush draw has completed and there is only one stronger flush with Kd, but there is also full house draw. But in my opinion your hand is still too strong to fold. According to equilab:

      Board: 6:diamond: 8:spade: A:diamond:  8:diamond:  T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    74.07%  74.07%   0.00% { QdJd }
      CO     25.93%  25.93%   0.00% { TT+, 88, 66, ATs+, A8s, A6s, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Shady9966,

      Well, what most likely I would have done there is I'd raise bigger on the turn ~$4 which is pot size. :) Then we would be pretty much committed on the river.

      But as played kind of dumb spot, it's so often gonna be a strong made hand and especially him playing it this way. I guess I am even consider of making the crying fold on the river while haven't invested much. Such a guy may easily even min-raise preflop with AA there and then trap afterwards.

      Even a Ax/AT is turned into bluff there or he is really that bad that he overvalued his AT. :f_biggrin: Also K now as well beats us. So do you expect the opponent to bluff like that?

      Best Regards.