[NL2-NL10] KTs odds

    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP2: $3.35 (33.5 bb)
      MP3: $10.55 (105.5 bb)
      CO: $15.96 (159.6 bb)
      SB: $3.55 (35.5 bb)
      BB: $10 (100 bb)
      BTN: $4.40 (44 bb)
      Hero (MP1): $16.32 (163.2 bb)
      UTG+2: $5.27 (52.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K T
      UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($1.25) 6 Q T (4 players)
      BB bets $0.89, Hero calls $0.89, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.89

      Turn: ($3.92) 2 (3 players)
      BB bets $2.79, Hero calls $2.79, CO folds

      River: ($9.50) J (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.60, BB calls $3.60

      i know i did not had the odds on the turn but for sure had implied odds plus hoping the player behind me will call!

      i think its a really close spot!
      what do you think?
  • 2 replies
    • Echoes88
      Echoes88
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 1,665
      Hello!

      Its marginal, not going to be huge +ev, but ok. I think. YOur IP that makes it easier to get value on the river.
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Hi, w4terman!

      Indeed, it's not a horrible call but it won't really but massively +EV.

      You can count on some implieds indeed as the BB's bet into 4 people is rather strong. On top of that, the CO will rarely raise because if he did have a hand strong enough he would have raised on the flop.

      I don't mind either way but would be more inclined to call if he had the nut draw. BB's play doesn't look like it but the CO could easily have A :club: x :club: , which not only take outs from us but could give us lots of reverse implieds if we do hit.

      On the river, be sure to use those implieds you said you had! Bet bigger. His check is most likely to control the pot and not a give up; at these limits most people won't fold a set or even two pairs, regardless of how much the do know you have the flush. Plus, when you bet too small it even looks more like value and less like a possible bluff (even though you have not much bluffs in your range but he probably doesn't read that). You can go ahead and fire like $6.5~$7.5 and expect to be called often enough to make it better than $3.6 ;)