[NL2-NL10] River fold?

    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,808
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $5.10
      MP3:
      $3.77
      CO:
      $12.03
      BU:
      $9.74
      SB:
      $5.89
      BB (Hero):
      $7.10


      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, T.
      3 folds, BU raises to $0.15, SB calls $0.13, Hero calls $0.10.

      Flop: ($0.45) K, 5, T (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, BU checks.

      Turn: ($0.45) 7 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BU calls $0.30, SB folds.

      River: ($1.05) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.65, BU raises to $2.00, Hero calls $1.35.

      Final Pot: $5.05.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows three of a kind, tens(Q T).BU shows a full-house, kings full of tens(K K).BU wins with a full-house, kings full of tens(K K).


      BU stats: 24/17/4.3/Steal BU 60%(10)/cbet 76%(17)/WTSD 19%(47)/W$SD 44%(9)/262 hands

      To make this a break even play I need 26,73%. Giving him this range

      Board: K:heart: 5:spade: T:diamond:  7:diamond:  T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    66.94%  64.52%   2.42% { QsTs }
      UTG+1  33.06%  30.65%   2.42% { KK+, TT, 77, 55, AKs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T6s+, AKo, ATo, KQo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T7o+ }

      I think I made a good call. Right? I called preflop because especially the SB how called is a bad player.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sikac,

      Really dumb spot I'd say since what kind of hands could BU even raise there? I really doubt it's gonna be worse than Tx, so for that given part it's really close.

      So for that given part I'd consider here to be something like:

      Board: K:heart: 5:spade: T:diamond:  7:diamond:  T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     76.09%  69.57%   6.52% { KK, 77, 55, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
      BB     23.91%  17.39%   6.52% { QsTs }

      Which actually means that we can't Call the river for the given part that we need ~27% equity.

      Best Regards.
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,808
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Sikac,

      Really dumb spot I'd say since what kind of hands could BU even raise there? I really doubt it's gonna be worse than Tx, so for that given part it's really close.

      So for that given part I'd consider here to be something like:

      Board: K:heart: 5:spade: T:diamond:  7:diamond:  T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     76.09%  69.57%   6.52% { KK, 77, 55, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
      BB     23.91%  17.39%   6.52% { QsTs }

      Which actually means that we can't Call the river for the given part that we need ~27% equity.

      Best Regards.
      Why did you exclude 106s+? I he is very loose from the button from what I get. So why he would there raise with a 10x range if he is overall loose aggressive? because of the sample size of recorded hands?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Why did you exclude 106s+? I he is very loose from the button from what I get. So why he would there raise with a 10x range if he is overall loose aggressive? because of the sample size of recorded hands?

      Cause with his AF I expect him to CB on such a board with those hands and not pick showdown there. Stronger Tx hands may even have showdown value but even with those I expect more often him still to CB.