[NL20-NL50] [FR] NL50, AKo

    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $83.00
      CO:
      $52.00
      BU:
      $50.00
      SB:
      $52.60
      BB:
      $20.00
      UTG1 (Hero):
      $105.40
      UTG2:
      $40.80
      MP1:
      $28.50
      MP2:
      $20.00


      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with K, A.
      Hero raises to $1.50, UTG2 calls $1.50, 3 folds, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($5.25) K, 9, 6 (3 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, UTG2 calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50.

      Turn: ($15.75) 5 (3 players)
      Hero bets $8.00, UTG2 folds, CO calls $8.00.

      River: ($31.75) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $22.00, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $31.75.

      Hi!

      Villain is 17/11 AF1.5, 3b 1%, F2CB 20%(10), WTS 15%(30), River AF -inf-, River AFq 40%(10), Bet IP 70% (although no cases on river till now), 344hands. PTR shows him as a good winning reg even on nl100.

      I wanna hear your advice although I did make a detailed analysis and will post it if needed to.

      A short cliff of it; villains stats indicate that villain likes to float and get aggresive if OR lets go of initiative. We need 30% to make the call BE. Question is how high is his bluffing range on river? What can we assume here, which hands do get to river(cuz quite some combos are discounted), and how many "sd value" hands does he turn into a bluff?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      If you´re going to c/f river then I really hate your turn bet. YOu´re basically then only isolating against better range and if you can´t c/c river I don´t see reason why you should bet turn for value.

      I would personally b/f river for value myself. He may still call me down with KQ or KTs hands and if he shoves I can find there fold. If I check I would expect him sometimes valuebet with KQ, so I would not really going to c/f there AK

      Question is how high is his bluffing range on river?
      - likely not so big, since 78s got there on the turn and he can´t really have there too many floats after your turn bet

      What can we assume here, which hands do get to river(cuz quite some combos are discounted), and how many "sd value" hands does he turn into a bluff?
      - I think he would not fold tp hands to your turn barrel, so his range are KQ-KT, sometimes also AK. Also he may have there sets and 78s and maybe sometimes also 77/88 that didn´t want to fold on the turn (although that is not so likely)

      Best regards,