[NL2-NL10] NL25: 86o freeplay - bet on river ok?

    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)     
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $10.58
      MP1:
      $20.05
      Hero:
      $5

      0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8:spade: , 6:heart: . Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
      UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks, 2 folds, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0.85) 7:diamond: , 9:spade: , 2:spade: (3 players)
      BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50.

        OESD playing IP both checking to me is a try worth for me.

      Turn: ($2.35) A:heart: (3 players)
      BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

        No improvement so c/f play here, a weak A could play this way.

      River: ($2.35) 9:heart: (3 players)
      BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1, 2 folds.

        Mmh quite sure not to have th best hand here, both opp are checking. I think if I want to win this pot I have to bet. Yr. opinion?

      Final Pot: $3.35
  • 4 replies
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      You're right about one thing - if you want this pot, you need to bet.

      Still, I don't think I would. You're hoping only on your fold equity, which is high but not that high maybe? You have to make your assumptions. For example:

      Assume a fe of 80% per oponent which is quite high I think. That makes 64% of chances that no one of them calls you. Since you have nearly nothing, you can assume they have you beat if they call. So an EV equation for your $1 bet looks like:

      (0.36)*(-1$) + (0.64)*(+$2.35) = +$1.144

      With 80% fe per oponent, it's clearly +EV move. Can you make such an assumption?

      (1-fe)*(-1) + (fe)*(2.35) = 0 => fe = 1/3.35 ~ 30% SQRT(.3) ~ 55%

      You need fold equity of 55% against either of your oponents. Do you have it?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      hm, I doubt it) you are badly overplaying these spots :D maybe you should quit posting from CO ! ;)
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Originally posted by xylere
      hm, I doubt it) you are badly overplaying these spots :D maybe you should quit posting from CO ! ;)
      after having a look at my PP stats I agree totally :)

      I have to take myself back strongly in such spots. often think I have to make a move, but don't have to, winning enough with my standard moves, but risking something I don't have to with this marginal decisions.

      Will work on this. :)

      Many thx @all, think I got a lot new knowledged of the last two days discussions and found some real leaks and failures in understanding :)
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      And I found out that thinking about hands and trying to describe my thoughts I'm starting to write english as Yoda from Star Wars lol ;)

      But I hope you understand what I meant;)