[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH JJ on low flop vs raise

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,070
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10.19)
      BB ($4.40)
      Hero ($10.15)
      CO ($11.36)
      BTN ($11.62)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: J:diamond:

      Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, SB calls $0.35, fold

      FLOP ($0.90) 6:diamond: 5:club: 4:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, SB raises to $2.40, Hero calls $1.65

      TURN ($5.70) 6:diamond: 5:club: 4:spade: 9:heart:

      SB bets $5.70, Hero raises to $7.35 (AI), SB calls $1.65

      RIVER ($20.40) 6:diamond: 5:club: 4:spade: 9:heart: 3:diamond:



      27/8/1.5 26 hands

      On flop - if he raises, he is not bluffing proabblay. So better would be to stack off right awasy, because on turn he might lay down hand like 6x. In game just thought - I want to keep his bluffs (like always I have to think worng when in game :) ). Other thing - I can be beat, so fold vs raise.

      After he raises on flop, he has left 7.39, so I need to invest that amount to win 19.38, so I need 38 % equity.

      Vs 44+,62s+,62o+

      I have 45%. So I need to scak off on flop.

      As played on turn - this could indicate a strong hand. He is not beting with 6x and some PPs. But I didn't manage to think like that in hand :( After that I intantly blinded out and quit the session.
  • 7 replies
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Why do you not have hands like 78 in his range? I also wouldn't put a lot of 6x hands in his range like you did. I'd prefer to keep it as 65s, 67s, 68s and maybe A6s, I certainly wouldn't be putting hands like 62o in his range ?(

      Also, although we don't have ant postflop stats on him, he seems passive preflop even over a small sample. This usually indicates that he's passive postflop as well, so I don't expect him to be raising there with every 6x.

      With a newly constructed range and saying he stacks off with all 6x he has in this range we are 41% against his range. So the call on the flop is questionable at best since his raise is so large.

      On the turn when he bets pot size I expect us to be behind a large amount of the time, as 77/88 would start to slow it down and now 99 beats us, I think it's a fold on the turn definitely, and a strong case can be made for a flop fold.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,070
      Why do you not have hands like 78 in his range?

      Forgot/didn't think about that somehow. But of course those might be in his range.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      I'd say they're much more likely to be in his range than hands like 62, 63, 69, 6T, 6J, 6Q and 6K. Probably even more likely than A6 :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,070
      yeah, aggree. Now its friday, there should be lots of fish, and don't know if I am able to play my A gae after these last hands :)
    • BogdanDr
      BogdanDr
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2009 Posts: 188
      On the turn is a fold, and as Wriggers said you could find reasons to fold on the flop (I would more encline to that), but if you decide to call because he is fishy and might have just a pair and a draw, then you should defenetly foald on the turn to a pot bet.
    • liguolong
      liguolong
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 731
      Normally it is a fold. But getting broke should be ok against random player at 10nl level. I have seen enough ppl who raise randomly to make it profitable. In general, it is really hard to estimate opponent's the range correctly and I get surprised a lot at the showdown. From my experience stack off with overpair seems to be profitable.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Pretty standard Bet/Fold on the flop without any good information. Even with good information I would really consider to continue. Too many combos beat us already and we wont see any good cards on the turn anyways. For me it's a clear Bet/Fold right on flop. :)

      Best Regards.