[NL2-NL10] Nl10 Sh Q9

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($6.12)
      BB ($14.52)
      UTG ($6.58)
      Hero ($10)
      BTN ($11.47)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: 9:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.20

      FLOP ($1.05) 2:heart: 3:heart: Q:diamond:

      BB bets $1.05, Hero calls $1.05

      TURN ($3.15) 2:heart: 3:heart: Q:diamond: J:heart:

      BB bets $1.55, Hero calls $1.55

      RIVER ($6.25) 2:heart: 3:heart: Q:diamond: J:heart: T:diamond:

      BB bets $1.55, Hero folds

      BB wins $5.94


      On flop I probaly have to call even such big bet.

      On turn I think I am not ahead. but would need to win extra 1.3$ so maybe it is still posible. On river the pot would be 6.25, so fish would call the 1.3 with weak flush or set.

      On river I don't beat anything even for given odds I think.
  • 1 reply
    • Wriggers
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      The guy is passive preflop as the stats show, I don't know if the 1.6 is 3bet or AF, but even if it is AF his 6% PFR shows he's not one to be raising/3betting lightly. I still call his min 3bet however with odds to stack off when we flop 2pair+.

      On the flop I guess you can't fold here as he can easily Cbet here with AK/JJ and maybe TT if he 3bets that preflop.

      By the time he bets the turn it's becoming quite obvious he has us beat, and we need 4:1 odds to call for the flush and we're getting ~3:1, so we should fold here.

      As played on the river he's giving us like 5:1 odds, so we only need to be good ~16% of the time. But his bet looks very much like a thin value bet (Even fish do this subconsciously) so I would expect him to show up with at least QK, most likely better, so you should fold here as well.

      However we can avoid a tricky river situation by just folding on the turn.