[NL2-NL10] AJo 3bet pot

    • wnbMG
      wnbMG
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2011 Posts: 586
      can we get away on flop?
      vs. 46/16/1.1/fold to 3bet (0/3)
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($21.30)
      BB ($5.70)
      UTG ($50.32)
      CO ($33.15)
      BTN ($11.42)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: J:spade:

      fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.20, fold, BTN calls $0.80

      FLOP ($2.60) A:spade: 2:club: 8:spade:

      Hero bets $2, BTN raises to $4, Hero raises to $20.10 (AI), BTN calls $6.22 (AI)

      TURN ($23.04) A:spade: 2:club: 8:spade: A:club:

      RIVER ($23.04) A:spade: 2:club: 8:spade: A:club: 9:club:

      BTN shows 8:heart: 8:club:
      (Pre 56%, Flop 94.7%, Turn 84.1%)

      Hero shows A:heart: J:spade:
      (Pre 44%, Flop 5.3%, Turn 15.9%)

      BTN wins $21.89
  • 4 replies
    • CheckBop
      CheckBop
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2010 Posts: 313
      oh dear this is not good at all :(
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello wnbMG,

      Well, if we take into account that it's a 3bet pot and such a guy can easily Call even with worse Ax hands then it's really close spot:

      Board: A:spade: 2:club: 8:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    60.98%  52.23%   8.75% { AA, 88, A8s+, ATo+ }
      UTG+1  39.02%  30.26%   8.75% { AhJs }

      We need ~37% equity. So which means it's gonna be rather break-even or a small profit from such a Call. What kind of stealing % does he have on BTN?

      Best Regards.
    • wnbMG
      wnbMG
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2011 Posts: 586
      What kind of stealing % does he have on BTN?

      36%
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by wnbMG
      What kind of stealing % does he have on BTN?

      36%
      Well, kind of close but seems to be fine. He definitely has even worse Ax hands in his range. Especially when he ain't even 100BB which I didn't see at first point. :D So I am also going broke.