[NL2-NL10] 66: push flop, vs 20/6/4.1/276

    • krubi
      krubi
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.08.2009 Posts: 1,806
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($13.58)
      BB ($8.75)
      UTG ($8.99)
      UTG+1 ($10.15)
      Hero ($10.20)
      BTN ($12.67)

      Dealt to Hero 6:spade: 6:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.30

      FLOP ($0.95) 6:heart: 9:heart: 7:spade:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG+1 raises to $3.05, Hero raises to $9.80 (AI), UTG+1 calls $6.70 (AI)

      Preflop -- opp is kinda fish, so we could make money not from set-value only, but also by cbet. So, we did raise.
      Although, opp has ftc=50/wtsd=42, so, maybe we shouldn't expect too much FE here?

      Opp limp/call preflop, so his range is about :
      77,55-22,ATs-A7s,A5s,KJs-K9s,Q9s+,JTs,KTo+,QJo

      I gets lowest set on flop, opp checks. Board is very wet, so I definitely can't try to slowplay here, I bet normal size. He does a big raise, he is pretty much tight, so we could expect something about such range:


      6:heart: 9:heart: 7:spade:

      MP2 40.27% 39.15% 1.12% { 6d6s }
      MP3 59.73% 58.61% 1.12% { 77, AhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah5h }


      So, should I fold here?
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello krubi,

      As you said he is a fish and which could sometimes even overplay his TP here so I doubt that I'd get it away here, especially when he could still even have 2pairs/pair+draw and maybe even just draw. Therefore I guess I'd also go broke here:

      Board: 6:heart: 9:heart: 7:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    42.03%  40.84%   1.18% { 99, 77, T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AhTh, Ah9h, 98o, 87o, 76o }
      UTG+1  57.97%  56.79%   1.18% { 6d6s }

      But of course if you consider him being rather conservative loose opponent and he wouldn't go broke with so wide range then it's towards a really close spot.

      Best Regards.
    • krubi
      krubi
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.08.2009 Posts: 1,806
      I simple took his stats and put it in Equilab, and there is no such hands like 98o, 87o, there are no even 87s and definitely no T8 in his 20/6. So his range is what I gave: two sets and maybe nuts fd.

      I mean, how these 98o, 87o etc. hands could appear in his range on flop, if his stats tell us that there were no such hands in his preflop limp/call@EP range?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by krubi
      I simple took his stats and put it in Equilab, and there is no such hands like 98o, 87o, there are no even 87s and definitely no T8 in his 20/6. So his range is what I gave: two sets and maybe nuts fd.

      I mean, how these 98o, 87o etc. hands could appear in his range on flop, if his stats tell us that there were no such hands in his preflop limp/call@EP range?
      Well, please then give me that information as well, not that you just keep yourself and then start arguing with me. :) Also HANDS!??!!? The most important aspect, how the heck can you expect the opponent ever to have such a range when you for example have only 20-50 hands on him. :D It's just horrible to assume and so far from 20/6 I would say he can have there practically everything, with such a stats you will rarely see any good player.
    • krubi
      krubi
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.08.2009 Posts: 1,806
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by krubi
      I simple took his stats and put it in Equilab, and there is no such hands like 98o, 87o, there are no even 87s and definitely no T8 in his 20/6. So his range is what I gave: two sets and maybe nuts fd.

      I mean, how these 98o, 87o etc. hands could appear in his range on flop, if his stats tell us that there were no such hands in his preflop limp/call@EP range?
      Well, please then give me that information as well, not that you just keep yourself and then start arguing with me. :)
      I gave the stats in the topic's title (66: push flop, vs 20/6/4.1/276). If it is not convenient for you, I may duplicate it in message next time.

      In my opinion 276 hands is enough samplesize to get realistic VPIP/PFR, isn't it?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      In my opinion 276 hands is enough samplesize to get realistic VPIP/PFR, isn't it?

      To expect him not to limp with such hands while he has such a huge gap between that? Also even if we remove such hands as some off-suited connectors then we could still even add some overpairs which he could be overplaying. :) Especially with such stats guy. If you are using HEM there is even a stat for what kind of amount of hands he limps but overall for my view the opponent doesn't seem to be really good. The only assumptions for me would be that he has mainly PPs in his range if he is really being rather tight which means we have to fold our hand. But now again? What kind of opponent is he postflop? :) He may easily even play this way with overpairs like TT/JJ since his PFR is really small most likely even smaller from UTG.
    • krubi
      krubi
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.08.2009 Posts: 1,806
      Thanks for the detailed reply! :)