Odds & Outs = An Interesting Brain Fart

    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      The quote below is from the following website: pokerlistings.com/poker-strategy-articles/poker-odds and the article: The Turn: Pot Odds for Fourth Street

      Please read the quote and then visit me again below...

      The Turn: Pot Odds for Fourth Street

      The concept of drawing odds on the flop used to mess with my brain when I was a beginner. I used to wonder "How can it be correct to call with +2-1 odds on the flop when you know they will bet the turn again?"

      When you think about it, in reality you're only seeing one card, not two, before you encounter another bet.

      Your odds for hitting the flush on the turn specifically are about 20%. I figured it made more sense to need 4-1 odds to make a call even on a flop.

      My beginner brainwaves are actually logically sound - in reality you are only seeing one card. The reason you can safely call getting better than 2-1 odds on the flop has to do with a whole bunch of factors beyond simple pot odds.

      You have to consider implied odds, setups and live-pair draws. Most importantly, you have to consider how often the flop bet is a bluff, semi-bluff or c-bet.

      In the majority of these situations, you are going to see a river without a bet on the turn, allowing you to draw two cards for your call. On top of that, you'll actually be ahead of many of these bluffs.

      The concept behind this reasoning is this: You do not know what will happen on later streets, you must make the correct choice for the current action with the information you have.

      It is simply not possible to play profitable poker on assumptions and hopes.


      In all of the videos I watch and articles I read about Pot Odds, here at Pokerstrategy, I always witness the examples showing the Odds from Flop to Turn, but never from Flop to River. I would like to know why Pokerstrategy encourages only calculating Pot Odds from the Flop to the Turn instead of the Flop to the River. Even the "Outs and Odds" printable document shows first the Odds from the Flop to the Turn, and then from the Flop to the River. In my opinion, based on the article I included above, the Outs and Odds document should show first Flop to River, and then Turn to River.

      Opinions? Explanations?
  • 2 replies
    • esuohdla
      esuohdla
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 411
      Pot odds is the ratio of the size of bet you have to call to the size of the pot currently, for example if an opponent bet 4 into a 6 pot you would have 2.5:1 pot odds to call that bet.

      Therefore at that definition I really dont understand your question. Could you try rephrasing?
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Originally posted by esuohdla
      Pot odds is the ratio of the size of bet you have to call to the size of the pot currently, for example if an opponent bet 4 into a 6 pot you would have 2.5:1 pot odds to call that bet.

      Therefore at that definition I really dont understand your question. Could you try rephrasing?
      The question is whether we ought to consider our odds at the Flop as "Flop to River" or "Flop to Turn." When you need to make a decision on the flop, you can consider "Flop to River" odds, where you will see that your odds for a Flush Draw are about 2:1. But if you consider "Flop to Turn" odds, you will see that you need 4:1.

      There seems to be two different fields of thought out there, with Pokerstrategy emphasizing "Flop to Turn" odds, while other Poker minds say to always use "Flop to River" odds. I used to use "Flop to Turn" odds, but now I believe that this approach is an incorrect approach.