the first 10k hands, a review

    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324


      obviously NL25SH was my first limit. wasn't necessarily a winning player on this limit, just wanted to feel cash out before i dived in.

      basically i hear that my stats are pretty solid for looser TAG, albeit with a higher than usual PFR amount. few times i'm calling, is when someone raises up UTG and i have a low pocket pair. sometimes if they're quite loose i'll mix this up by 3betting them with the low pocket pairs, or calling AQ, mainly for deception purposes.

      developments during this 10k include me 3betting a lot wider IP and less squeezes OOP with 77-88 hands. i'm also including more second barrels and river purebluffs into my range.

      whereas things i need to work on is mainly fancy play syndrome, and bluffing a few too many pots.


      so down to the nitty gritty... how indicative is 10k hands as a sample for SH, for my true winrate? can i be regarded as a winning player in the longrun with these stats?
  • 14 replies
    • Marivs
      Marivs
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.08.2007 Posts: 148
      Damn you're one aggresive "mofo"!

      I would really like to see a session review of your play so quickly download camtasia and record one of your sessions for us so that we get an idea how to terrorize the tables like you do with those 20/19 stats :D
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      camtasia fails so bad for me. but sure, i'll give it a go later.
    • Tjablonsky
      Tjablonsky
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      Joined: 30.09.2007 Posts: 86
      Yes, I would like to see that session....looking forward
    • srohack
      srohack
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      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 1,908
      surely you can be a wining player with this stats but i dont think you can ever mantain a 24 winrate :)
    • slikec
      slikec
      Global
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 1,155
      ARe those your really first 10k hands? You really didn't play at least 50k on lower limits before? You just strated with NL0,25 and switched to NL0,50 in no time and own tables. Lol is just amazing.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      i started on sngs... when i changed i already knew my postflop skills were ok.

      so it's not from absolute 0, dw :P .


      question is how definitely am i to be a winning player in the longrun?

      i hope my winrate is above 10BB/100, as i only 4-table, and try get reads on most players (besides pokertracker/pokerace stats)
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      -
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      only time will give you the confirmation) very nice start, but 10k hands is not a sample for NL cash. 100k should be enough
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      I've been to NL 600 SH coaching today and the coach made an interesting reply to winrate question, he said something like:

      "I wouldn't judge my winrate, unless I played 1mil hands, but even then it won't be precise, because of the long-existent learning curve of SH poker"
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by chenny8888
      so down to the nitty gritty... how indicative is 10k hands as a sample for SH, for my true winrate? can i be regarded as a winning player in the longrun with these stats?
      1) Not very well at all. A quantitive answer is impossible unless your standard deviation is known. BTW, PT has your SD figure.

      2)Even with your tiny sample it is quite possible that your true win-rate is >0 since your win-rate is so high. It is very easy to calculate an approximate likely interval for your win-rate if your SD is known.

      Nice play!!

      Do you have a graph of your winnings?

      Originally posted by xylere
      I've been to NL 600 SH coaching today and the coach made an interesting reply to winrate question, he said something like:

      "I wouldn't judge my winrate, unless I played 1mil hands, but even then it won't be precise, because of the long-existent learning curve of SH poker"
      Also for most "normal people" the time it would take to play 1 mil hands would result in the games changing anyway. ie. your win-rate would not necessarily be valid since much of your sample would come from a "different game".
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      well, I assume that everyone who takes poker more then just a hobby should play at least 1mil per year, which is not that crazy amount for a full-time poker player.

      but, yeah, the statemnet is definitely too extreme, nevertheless, the idea is correct, imo.


      1) Not very well at all. A quantitive answer is impossible unless your standard deviation is known. BTW, PT has your SD figure.


      where is it?)
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      seems solid, although you might want to play >20k hands to have an *approximation* of your winrate. It still won't be reliable, but it'll be close enough...
      My stats are somewhat similar, although I'm a bit less aggressive post-flop, and looser in the SB (so overall it's closer to 20/17 or so). btw do you want to play a session or 2 via teamviewer? if so send me a PM on 2p2 ;)

      subtle note to admins: implement PM's please!
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      email me your details. my email is chenny8888@gmail.com
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by xylere

      1) Not very well at all. A quantitive answer is impossible unless your standard deviation is known. BTW, PT has your SD figure.


      where is it?)
      sessions -> More detail