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[NL2-NL10] Blind defence: NL10 SH AJ

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($28.37)
      BB ($11.83)
      UTG ($10)
      CO ($10.25)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: J:spade:

      fold, CO raises to $0.40, fold, Hero calls $0.35, fold

      FLOP ($0.90) 5:club: 5:spade: Q:heart:

      Hero checks, CO bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      TURN ($1.90) 5:club: 5:spade: Q:heart: Q:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      RIVER ($1.90) 5:club: 5:spade: Q:heart: Q:diamond: T:club:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      14/12/4.2
      steal from CO 16
      fold to resteal 58
      fold to cbet in 3bet pots 50
      4bet 9
      cbet 72
      cbet turn 21
      wtsd 25
      w$sd 61

      hands 2.6K

      He does not fold to 3bets, so I guess I can expoit his small turn cbet even OOP.

      On turn - I thought my bluff should not work, he would have to believe that I have Q, so I tried to go to cheap sd.
  • 3 replies
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Hi, SPeedFANat1c.

      Interesting hand. I didn't get your questions about 3bet OR turn cbet since none of those happened in the hand.

      I don't think there is much value in bluffing turn since he have probably the best unpaired hand - and he shouldn't fold any pairs to your bluff. Only hand that beats us is AK.

      Going to showdown is fine; it's a bit of a shame he might play 22-44 like that as well, as well as 66-99. We can go on and bet the river strong, like pot or close to pot, so he lets go of all his small pairs, but that's not so big a deal and it's very opponent dependant of course.

      Let me see something, for the exercise.

      A 16% range can look like this: 66+,A7s+,A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

      Meh, probably not. How can this guy be so tight?? Anyway, he's probably opening all pockets so lets give him this:

      22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

      Out of that, we beat only 1,8% (A9s,KJs,QJs,KJo); in other words, we're ahead only 1/9 of the time against his damn tight range. At those times it doesn't matter if we bet or not since he'll likely fold if we bet anyway.

      He has 3,6% of hands with a T (JJ-TT,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,ATo,KTo) with which he would likely bluff catch, plus maybe JJ that went for pot control on the turn. Maybe we can even give him 1% more for KK/AA since he cbets so low on the turn but maybe he would cbet those.

      22-44 and 66-99 are 3,1%.

      All in all it's a very close spot. I don't assume he'll fold all of those pockets all the time, and we would have to make that assumption to make a pot bet profitable - considering he didn't slowplay a Q on the turn obviously, and it is actually plausible he would since he is turn passive and there is not much he can extract from.

      We could maybe find a smaller bet that needs to work less than 50% of the time but still... probably not very profitable anyway


      I think you played the hand fine but it's clear that we won't win the showdown very often.

      So all in all, I even think AJo might be a fold against this particular guy. It seems weak but:


             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    49.92%  46.65%   3.27% { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
      MP3    50.08%  46.82%   3.27% { AJo }


      And we will very rarely win a decent pot out of position against him or his range, but we can very well lose the big ones since AJ has a bit of a bad playability vs his range.

      Since he's not stealing us often anyway (16%) we don't need to fear being "exploited" by blind steal at all.

      That's what I think, feel free to disagree. :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Ok, then vs him, just fold AJ there and not get into situations like this, is OOP I must have equity advantage if I call to compensate positional disadvantage and the equity advandate almost don't exist there.
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Ok, then vs him, just fold AJ there and not get into situations like this, is OOP I must have equity advantage if I call to compensate positional disadvantage and the equity advandate almost don't exist there.
      There you go.

      Playability also counts; it's good to have hands with both equity AND the possibility of winning a massive pot.

      So medium pairs 99-JJ are quite good (both equity-wise and for sets) and medium suited aces like AJ/AQ are ok for a call. At least every once in a while you'll win a nice pot. With AJo you'll win the small ones and lose the big ones when he has a better ace etc.