[NL20-NL50] [sh] NL 25 3bet semibluff A high turn

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($22.51)
      BB ($32.61)
      UTG ($25)
      CO ($23.23)
      Hero ($25.22)

      Dealt to Hero T:club: Q:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, BB calls $0.50

      FLOP ($1.60) 4:spade: 3:club: 5:diamond:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

      TURN ($4) 4:spade: 3:club: 5:diamond: A:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB raises to $9.50, Hero raises to $23.27 (AI), BB calls $13.77

      RIVER ($50.54) 4:spade: 3:club: 5:diamond: A:club: 9:club:

      BB shows 2:spade: 2:club:
      (Pre 47%, Flop 73.1%, Turn 79.5%)

      Hero shows T:club: Q:club:
      (Pre 53%, Flop 26.9%, Turn 20.5%)

      Hero wins $48.54

      Villain is an aggressive regular.
      I put in a little equity calculation, added and subtracted different hands but the equity remains ~ 25 %


      Board: 4:spade: 3:club: 5:diamond:  A:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    24.48%  22.14%   2.34% { QcTc }
      MP3    75.52%  73.18%   2.34% { 66-55, AQs-AJs, 76s, 6c5c, AQo-AJo }



      x(16.5) + (1-x)(0.25*50.5-0.75*20)= 0
      and my opp needs to fold ~17% of the time, so if he folds at least 1 in 5 this is a good play and I think he does.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      problem is that player should not c/r bluff on that turn card, so personally I´d b/c turn, since I have flushdraw (and also if he is c/r bluffing turn I think he would c/f river) rather than shove without having almost any fold equity

      Best regards,