[NL2-NL10] KK vs possible setminer

    • Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.06.2010 Posts: 683
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2)
      BB ($1.24)
      Hero ($5)
      UTG+1 ($4.58)
      UTG+2 ($1.72)
      MP1 ($2)
      CO ($1.95)
      BTN ($2.02)

      Dealt to Hero K:diamond: K:heart:

      Hero raises to $0.08, fold, fold, MP1 calls $0.08, fold, BTN calls $0.08, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.27) 7:heart: 2:diamond: 6:spade:

      Hero bets $0.20, MP1 folds, BTN raises to $0.45, Hero calls $0.25

      TURN ($1.17) 7:heart: 2:diamond: 6:spade: 9:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      RIVER ($1.17) 7:heart: 2:diamond: 6:spade: 9:spade: 5:heart:

      Hero bets $0.42, BTN raises to $1.49 (AI), Hero ???

      Villain is 15/12 over 2,3k hands.
      I'm guessing he is setmining, so 22-TT are possible.
      When he minraises I'm not sure he has a set, since he has position and wouldn't want to scary me, but I'm not sure if this is correct. If it is, than he must have overcards and I played it really bad since he could have hit a set o a straight with the 9, should have protected. If not, I guess I should have either check/fold or check/call the river... Anyway I know I played it poorly so what do you think I should have done?

      Thanks
  • 12 replies
    • Scarynoob44
      Scarynoob44
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2011 Posts: 196
      most of people dont play sets like this - raising on super dry board and then checking behind that turn is also very strango for set, i can see people play TT,JJ,QQ hands.
      Or 55 could be also possible.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Paaaaaaaaaulo,

      First question first. :D What can I do with the stats here? :P I don't really see that the VPIP/PFR stats help me a lot anyways here. You can as well not paste them since postflop stats are needed.

      But as played on the river is pretty standard Bet/Fold, I doubt that we beat much there while too many hands beat us already. :) Most likely I wouldn't even Bet the river anyways since there ain't gonna be a lot worse hands which we get value from, I'd rather Check/Fold unless he is betting really weak.

      Best Regards.
    • Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.06.2010 Posts: 683
      I always paste them so you can have an idea of the opponent... but I guess I could have paste a few more.
      Knowing the results could influence me so what do you think about a turn bet? The flop doesn't seem like a set rather overpair which I beat, buth once the 9 comes 88 and TT have a straightdraw, 99 already beats me and JJ I'm not worried about.

      Thanks veriz and Scarynoob44
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Paaaaaaaaaulo
      I always paste them so you can have an idea of the opponent... but I guess I could have paste a few more.
      Knowing the results could influence me so what do you think about a turn bet? The flop doesn't seem like a set rather overpair which I beat, buth once the 9 comes 88 and TT have a straightdraw, 99 already beats me and JJ I'm not worried about.

      Thanks veriz and Scarynoob44
      If he is raising us on the flop we ain't betting the turn.
    • Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.06.2010 Posts: 683
      Would you c/c the turn?

      I think I'm having trouble understanding why am I not betting the turn, I'll explain why, you will be able to help me. Since I know he had 88 I may not be able to analyze the hand correctly, but as said before I think he has 88-JJ (a set would call flop, call turn and raise river, I guess).
      88 and TT have now a straightdraw, which I should protect from;
      99 has now a set so I'm expecting him to c and raise the river;
      JJ is still an overpair which may have trouble laying down;

      Is this analyses wrong?
      Thanks for your time :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Would you c/c the turn?

      I think I'm having trouble understanding why am I not betting the turn, I'll explain why, you will be able to help me. Since I know he had 88 I may not be able to analyze the hand correctly, but as said before I think he has 88-JJ (a set would call flop, call turn and raise river, I guess).
      88 and TT have now a straightdraw, which I should protect from;
      99 has now a set so I'm expecting him to c and raise the river;
      JJ is still an overpair which may have trouble laying down;

      Is this analyses wrong?
      Thanks for your time :)
      Well, cause not many worse hands will continue nor your play doesn't make sense. If you think you are ahead why don't you 3bet it on the flop? :)
    • Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.06.2010 Posts: 683
      I think JJ and TT will call the turn, 88 might do it aswell... I don't think either of them continues once they face a 3bet on flop... do you think he could have other hands we didn't discuss?
      Thanks veriz :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Paaaaaaaaaulo
      I think JJ and TT will call the turn, 88 might do it aswell... I don't think either of them continues once they face a 3bet on flop... do you think he could have other hands we didn't discuss?
      Thanks veriz :)
      Well, all strong made hands are there. :P Just start adding them.
    • ilovemagic
      ilovemagic
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2011 Posts: 1,019
      just looking at this hand without any stats avail, I am pretty worried about the raise on the flop, the check on the turn is very odd, and his bet on the river with that board pretty much seems like an autofold to me. With his tightness and range with the stats availible, it makes it an even worse situation on the flop to just flat his raise, and checking the turn as played seems fine, but possible c/f turn, c/f river seems like you would be getting the most value out of this tight opponent who is coming into hands with mostly pp and big cards like AK, AQ. So most of his range gets cut out once he raises you on the flop, after just flatting IP preflop.
      I would say there isnt much to say about what he couldve had postflop, as he is pretty well unknown and we are going to need a little more then just 2 stats to start predicting hand strengths post flop just because a tight preflop opponent raises you on the flop.
      He couldve very well just been looking at your stats, decided you were playing too tight and decided he might have been able to get you off the hand no matter what he had.
      He couldve decided you were too loose and decided to flat IP preflop with QQ or JJ, and liked what he saw on the flop, raised you, you call, so he goes back on defense mode, and you check the turn so he senses weakness once again, coupled by your horrific value bet on the river, and decides to raise on the suspicion that you are holding air, like AK.

      so all in all vs tight opponent who by rights should be tight post flop,b/f b/c, b/r flop seems like the right line post flop, however once he raises us on the flop, our options get a little slimmer on the turn and river. we are checking to the raiser on the turn definately, possible c/f, depending on opp. bet size. and river the best line is just to c/f again.
    • Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Paaaaaaaaaulo
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.06.2010 Posts: 683
      @veriz you mean sets (22, 66, 77)? I think they would call the flop... am I wrong?
      @ilovemagic Yeas, river play was just awful. What I'm still not 100% convinced is to check the turn... I know he raised me, but to me it looks like overpair unaware I have an even better one... re-raising will most likely give away the strength of my hand and I'll loose value, so I called, but once the turn comes a 9 there are overpairs which improve (straighdraws), from which I should protect and even possibly extract value...

      I do understand that calling the flop and donking the turn seems far-fetched but I think it's probably better than checking assuming he never minraises a set, which I'm doing... then again, is that wrong?

      Thanks both for your time :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Not only sets. :) 2pairs/straights etc type of hands.
    • ilovemagic
      ilovemagic
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2011 Posts: 1,019
      well, his range was tight. he couldve had any pp as a starting hand so theres really not too many your getting value from on that turn or river anyway