[NL2-NL10] NL4; SH: AJo sqeeze, Cbet or not flop?

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      IPoker, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $3.33 (83.3 bb)
      SB: $8.24 (206 bb)
      Hero (BB): $5.14 (128.5 bb)
      MP: $3.55 (88.8 bb)
      CO: $4 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
      MP folds, CO raises to $0.16, BTN calls $0.16, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.64, CO folds, BTN calls $0.48

      Flop: ($1.46) 2 9 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.88, BTN raises to $2.69 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Results: $3.22 pot ($0.21 rake)
      Final Board: 2 9 6
      BTN mucked and won $3.01 ($1.49 net)
      Hero mucked J A and lost (-$1.52 net)

      Caller's stats:
      VP/PFR/Foldto3bet/FoldtoFlopCbet/FoldtoFlopCbet3betpot/WTSD/hands
      49/18/0(2)/82(11)/100(1)20/108

      The squeeze is ok, I suppose. I decided to Cbet the flop because of his high fold to Cbet %, would you have done the same?
  • 12 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      No point to CB here, especially if the BTN Call/Calls like this preflop. You will rarely make a lot of hands to fold here anyways.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Why is his FoldtoFlopCbet stat as well as his WTSD stat not important here? Is that not a sign that he gives op very often on the flop? Could we not bet even on this kind of a board given his statistics? Or is the sample size an issue here?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Why is his FoldtoFlopCbet stat as well as his WTSD stat not important here? Is that not a sign that he gives op very often on the flop? Could we not bet even on this kind of a board given his statistics? Or is the sample size an issue here?
      Well, it's a 3bet pot. It's only for 100 hands. :)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      If the sample size was considerably bigger such play would have been ok, right?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      If the sample size was considerably bigger such play would have been ok, right?
      Then I would take a look fold to CB in 3bet pots and of course fold to 3bet. According to that we can base the assumptions what kind of range he has. Sometimes we might even be ahead with our A high and are able to CB.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Is my following conclusion correct:
      The looser he calls 3bets the better the cbet would be because he misses so often, unless he has got a very low fold to Cbet in 3bet pots %.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Is my following conclusion correct:
      The looser he calls 3bets the better the cbet would be because he misses so often, unless he has got a very low fold to Cbet in 3bet pots %.
      As I said, if he calls more then it means he has wider range, which means for us?
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Well, it could mean several things:

      1) we might be ahead with our A high often. After a Cbet, however, it is a check on the turn in most cases and if my opponent called my flop cbet with something that is even worse than A high than I would assume that he would float e.i. bet the turn after which we have to give up. That is why I don't exactly understand why it matters so much that we might be ahead on the flop since we are OOP and can be easily forced out of the hand with our A high.

      2) he often does not have a strong hand on the flop either which is why theoretically he should fold to Cbets often.

      3) if his 3bet calling range is wide there, it is a sign of fishiness which in turn means that it would not be a good idea to Cbet him, perhaps not even at all without a hit in this situation.

      I can find reasons for and reasons against a Cbet if he has a wide 3bet calling range. Which action is better, however, I cannot determine.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, it's not only the problem here that of course our normal CB may work here but if it would work against his specific stack while he may feel pretty much committed to the pot. Even with a draw and obviously any PP/pair he is playing for the stacks.

      Also what you shouldn't forget that we only have 100 hands on the guy, which isn't the perfect sample at all. Also what you will very often see from such stations that they more often Call/Call hands as PPs in those spots and if they don't have a hand they rarely will even take stabs postflop anyways. If he is passive enough we can very easily see Check behind and we are ahead with our Ace high there anyways no matter what. So we can as well just Check.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Thanks for the great answer!

      One thought though - does it not automatically follow that we shouldn't Cbet this hand OOP against this guy in a 3bet pot without a hit on any boards at all? Even dry boards on which we can represent something such as Kd 8h 2c?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Thanks for the great answer!

      One thought though - does it not automatically follow that we shouldn't Cbet this hand OOP against this guy in a 3bet pot without a hit on any boards at all? Even dry boards on which we can represent something such as Kd 8h 2c?
      Boards where we can represent something are more likely to CB if he is folding enough to CBs. Especially such boards as Kxx since we can represent AK or something similar and he may even sometimes fold hands like TT-QQ.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Ok, thanks!