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[NL2-NL10] NL10 99 going broke with overpair on turn

    • yayasarika
      Joined: 25.09.2010 Posts: 59
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($3.20)
      BB ($9.45)
      UTG ($9.90)
      UTG+1 ($33.88)
      UTG+2 ($10.68)
      MP1 ($8.43)
      MP2 ($10.63)
      Hero ($11.77)
      BTN ($11.74)

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: 9:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold, fold, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.55, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.45, fold

      FLOP ($1.35) 4:spade: 8:heart: 2:heart:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG+1 calls $0.80

      TURN ($2.95) 4:spade: 8:heart: 2:heart: 3:club:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.05, UTG+1 raises to $9.10, Hero raises to $10.42 (AI), UTG+1 calls $1.32

      RIVER ($23.79) 4:spade: 8:heart: 2:heart: 3:club: 2:spade:

      villain played 50/8 but only 37 hands so no other stats to go on.
      3 hands before this I saw how he played a flopped set and he played it straightforward betting as hard as he could.

      normally I would check turn for pot control but so many draws out there, and overcards that could come. so I decided to bet for protection.

      thinking about the hand he played with a set earlier. I decided that either he called my cbet with a gutshot or pocket 3s and pushed turn with it or he is semi-bluffing. I don't have enough hands to know if he would semi-bluff turn though.

      against a set or straight I have nearly no equity but versus a semi bluff I have good equity, or might even be ahead depending on the range I put him on.

      if I give him a over pair, top pair top kicker, a slow played top set, and a few semi bluffs w second pair + oesd, oesd etc. I have very good equity.
      Board: 8h2h4s3c
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 47.73% 47.73% 0.00% { TT, 88, 55, A8s, 85s, 65s, 54s, AhJh, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, 53o+ }
      CO 52.27% 52.27% 0.00% { 9d9s }

      so get it in or fold?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello yayasarika,

      Well, I don't even see any good stats or nor good reads. With just one read that you saw him playing this way it's really close spot. It's rather the question how you see the opponent playing his hand there. Can he overplay 8x hands this way or not. Usually those loose-passive guys are rather passive. For that given reason I might even Bet/Fold it here.

      But of course if you expect him to have such a range then why shouldn't you go broke? But myself I wouldn't usually overplay just a small overpair here this way without any specific reads.

      Best Regards.