All-In Formula

    • golaking
      golaking
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 44
      Hi guys,
      pretty new to the forum (2nd post), just wanted to get some feedback on a theory I have regarding my All-In calls in Tournys when I've a hard decision to make on the flop.

      I've been mainly playing cash table but this week I've been working on my tournament play. I'm trying to improve by focusing on my weakness' and really trying to improve my play.

      I seem to keep making the mistake of thinking I'm ahead, only to find out I'm not when I lose a chunk of my stack while ITM. This is really damaging my potential winnings. So I've came up with an "All-In Formula" to try and get me thinking more and making better lay-downs.

      All feedback would be greatly appreciated!!


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      ALL-IN GUIDELINES


      -Take into account my hand in relation to what hands my opponent could be holding.

      -Count the number of likely hands that could be beating mine.

      -Use my All-In formula :- My hand / better likely hands = success odds

      I.E.:- Jd/10d (i raised pre-flop x2.5)
      Board:- Jc/8h/6c (i bet around half the pot)


      Villain: Playing Solidly throughout the tourny so far
      : Called my raise pre-flop, re-raises my bet all-in
      Possible Hands: Flush Draw (doubtful he'd go all-in here)
      : AJ(re-r)/KJ/QJ/88/66/JJ(re-r)/J8(doubtful)
      : There are other hands AA-QQ he could have, but from his play he would have pushed pre-flop with these.


      So from these hands I would say he possibly has 4 out of 7.
      He would have re-raised with 2 and doubt he'd call a raise
      pre-flop with J8.

      So to my 1 hand he has 4 possible hands he would
      have called with that have me beat.

      So I'm a 4:1 Underdog at this stage.

      I should NOT call his all-in shove at this stage.

      Unfortunately I did and he flipped over Qs/Jh.
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


      I intend to run with this formula when I'm ITM and I'm
      playing against the better players who are left.

      I'll hopefully update here with my progress!
  • 6 replies
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:
    • golaking
      golaking
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 44
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

      There's me thinking that this forum was a means to express ideas and get some good feedback, obviously not with your comment.

      I am not suggesting that this formula is brain-stormingly brilliant, its main aim is to get my brain thinking and working out what my opponent could be holding.

      I make the mistake of bad calls when ITM and I'm working on improving and strengthening my game.


      Idiotic comments like this will definitely reduce my chance of posting here in the future.
    • deezer79
      deezer79
      Silver
      Joined: 13.06.2011 Posts: 191
      Seems like some of the standard things that should be going through your mind when in a hand and playing at any stage of a game, no just ITM. Your example is an obvious laydown to a tight player...though I doubt a tight player would 3bet shove queen high. You may want to write down chip stacks as you may have equity to make that call in certain situations.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      I'm no expert on ranges.


      But let me explain the basic concept of it. What everyone should do is put people on a certain range of hands. For example after the flop shove you could put him on QKcc+(clubs), Jx, 88, 66, QQ+, A8, A6, 9T and bluffs.


      This might be tighter/looser depending on the player and stack sizes. You want to put someone on a range of hands. And then see how your hand does against it.

      For example if you put him on this range. And stacks are too deep for a bluff to make sense. Or he's a nit that doesn't ever bluff. (Really hard to put someone you never played with on a range imo. Since you don't have stats on him and i have no clue on his tendencies. The meaning of"tight" is different for everone)


      Basically against a somewhat logical range with no bluffs/shoving light. You have about 34% equity.


      edit: perhaps better to skip my post and read this article. Since it explains it better then i can. http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1719/1/ . You can download pokerstove/equilab (on pokerstrategy) to calculate your equity yourself.
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      hi golaking,

      welcome to the forum! nice to see your start posting. if you don't ask, you won't get answers, and you wont improve, right? :) many members are willing to help.

      will move your thread to the MTT Discussion Forum where it is more appropriate.

      some suggestions which are very good for improving your game:
      - reading the articles
      - downloading some ICM software to help you with your shoving ranges :)
      - posting hands in the evaluation sections to see if you played your hand correctly especially in critical situations

      smiles,
      wendy
    • TheRebuz
      TheRebuz
      Platinum
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 2,078
      stack sizes,position and blind level r important