[NL20-NL50] Set on the Flop

    • nehmatpoker
      nehmatpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2011 Posts: 29
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 10 Players

      UTG+2: $28.68 (286.8 bb)
      MP1: $10.65 (106.5 bb)
      MP2: $9.22 (92.2 bb) 13/8/2.9/2.0k
      MP3: $3.29 (32.9 bb)
      Hero (CO): $12.55 (125.5 bb)
      BTN: $9.75 (97.5 bb)
      SB: $3.40 (34 bb)
      BB: $5.34 (53.4 bb)
      UTG: $3.37 (33.7 bb)
      UTG+1: $17.79 (177.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 4 4
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.10, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 folds, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, BB checks

      Flop: ($0.45) A 4 J (4 players)
      BB checks, UTG+2 bets $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, BB folds, UTG+2 calls $0.30, MP2 calls $0.30

      Turn: ($1.65) Q (3 players)
      UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.10, UTG+2 calls $1.10, MP2 raises to $8.72 and is all-in, 2 folds

      Results: $4.95 pot ($0.32 rake)
      Final Board: A 4 J Q
      UTG+2 mucked and lost (-$1.60 net)
      MP2 mucked and won $4.63 ($3.03 net)
      Hero mucked 4 4 and lost (-$1.60 net)

      In hindsight, I think I should have called him. AA,QQ,JJ would have raised pre-flop, KT was the only hand that had me beat. He could have also shipped it with AQ,AJ and QJ.
  • 5 replies
    • jperucao
      jperucao
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2010 Posts: 792
      well, tought spot.

      He really can have KT because on flop he was getting really good odds to call. AA i think he doesn't have because he would raise on pre flop. Possible hands there i think are JJ, KT, two pairs (hear i only includ AQ because if he had two pairs on flop i think he would raise it to extract from FD's and Str8 draws) and flushdraws. Against this range of hands we are loosing money because we don't have enough equity to make a profitable call. So i guee it was a good fold.
    • nehmatpoker
      nehmatpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2011 Posts: 29
      Hi,

      Thanks for your analysis. I think you are right about his range, although I think he would have raised JJ pre-flop. He raises 8% of the times, JJ from middle position is definitely in the range. Still taking your range into account (i.e AQ,KT,JJ), I have 41.64% equity. I needed 37.74% equity to call.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I would not fold my set that spot, since he can have every combo draw that he might play the same way (for example QcTc) and only KT would realistically beat you that is too small range to fold set in big pot.

      Best regards,
    • Heave112
      Heave112
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.03.2009 Posts: 456
      Wouldn't have AA,JJ,QQ in that spot since definitely 3 bet pre, all combo draws are in his combo range especially AQ,AQs , QJ,QJs etc. Even if he has K-10 you still have 22.60% Equity ur not screwed. Snap call imo.

      Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

      12,336,162 games 6.511 secs 1,894,664 games/sec

      Board: Ah Jc 4h Qh
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 64.545% 64.55% 00.00% 7963526 0.00 { 4c4d }
      Hand 1: 35.454% 35.46% 00.00% 4374436 0.00 { JJ, AJs+, KTs, QJs, AJo+, KTo, QJo }
    • nehmatpoker
      nehmatpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2011 Posts: 29
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Hi,

      I would not fold my set that spot, since he can have every combo draw that he might play the same way (for example QcTc) and only KT would realistically beat you that is too small range to fold set in big pot.

      Best regards,
      I'll keep that in mind for similar situations in future.

      Originally posted by Heave112
      Wouldn't have AA,JJ,QQ in that spot since definitely 3 bet pre, all combo draws are in his combo range especially AQ,AQs , QJ,QJs etc. Even if he has K-10 you still have 22.60% Equity ur not screwed. Snap call imo.

      Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

      12,336,162 games 6.511 secs 1,894,664 games/sec

      Board: Ah Jc 4h Qh
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 64.545% 64.55% 00.00% 7963526 0.00 { 4c4d }
      Hand 1: 35.454% 35.46% 00.00% 4374436 0.00 { JJ, AJs+, KTs, QJs, AJo+, KTo, QJo }
      My equity was actually a bit higher, you input the board and my hole cards incorrect.



      Board: A:heart: 4:club: J:club:  Q:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    66.85%  66.85%   0.00% { 4h4s }
      MP3    33.15%  33.15%   0.00% { JJ, AJs+, KTs, QJs, AJo+, KTo, QJo }


      But I understand your point. I had a high enough equity to make the call. Thanks for the help guys.