[NL2-NL10] 04/04 SSS Adv. Coaching - preflop equity decisions

    • xarry2
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 834
      This weeks topic will be preflop equity decisions. As for me, its the most important part of shortstackstrategy. Preflop we simply have the biggest stack left - one false decision and our whole stack is on stake.

      I will post some sample hands illustrating the use of my equity chart which is imo a very easy but still very detailed way to choose the correct actions preflop.


      The first chart only includes basic figures and holdings. With the second chart however, you should find help for almost any other preflop decision regarding reraises and reacting to reraises.
      On the left side you can find your holding - compared with different hand ranges. Of course you can change these ranges for your own purposes. I just chose some reasonable ones.

      Let's start with a sample hand:

      5/10 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:diamond: , K:spade:
      UTG+1 raises $40.00 , Hero ???

      UTG+1: bigstack, 16/12

      According to basic strategy we have to reraise here with AKo. However if we take a look at our equity we see that we're not looking that good against UTG raising ranges - even against this TAG. I don't want to get to deep into estimating the exact raising range according to his PFR and his position. This is very difficult sometimes. But if you take a look at the chart this desicions becomes a lot easier if you only pick out the reasonable ranges and compare them to your holdings. In this case I think the first 3 ranges are possible. JJ+, Ak is a bit too tight, TT+, AQ+ seems very realistic and 99+ AJ, KQ is still possible but would be quite loose. What i want to point out is that you can get a feeling when a reraise is correct much faster than if you would only play according to the basic chart with some adaptions. In this case I think we can find a close fold. Even though a good regular on NL 1k will make some deception raises from UTG with SCs or low PPs I don't think that he's looser than TT+, AQ+ very often. Here we only have 49.2% equity so we should fold. Even if I loosen up his range a bit our edge stays small.

      If you want to reraise compare your hand with the range which is most likely for the situation (opponent, stats, position, history...) If you have more than 50% equity you can reraise but be aware that with only 0.5% edge e.g. your variance is huge.

      I also have to mention that the break even equity for a reraise can change if you consider blinds and rake. On lower limits you should even be tighter and maybe only make a reraise with 52.5% or more. On higher limits where the blinds overcompensate the rake its of course the other way round.

      The second application of the chart is when we are facing a reraise. Of course we know the basic ratios of our remaining stack and our raise from the basic SSS chart which tell us when to push. This is obviously very vague. On the other hand we can't manage to calculate the exact pot odds everytime we get raised while multitabling. An easy solution is to relate the raise to stack ratios and the pot odds in one chart. So we can simply and quickly determine our raise to stack ratio and the equity we need to push then.
      If we raise 4BB with a 20BB stack on NL 200 (blinds - rake = 0) and get reraised (for simplification I always assume to be reraised All-In) we have a 4:1 stack to raise ratio which equals at least 40% equity against the reraising range in order to push profitable (4BB+20BB/16BB = 2.5:1 => equity is: 1/3.5 = 40%)
      Now the equity calculation does no longer take much time but we still can come to a correct and accurate decision.

      Sample Hand:

      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)    

      5/10 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:club: , A:diamond:
      MP1 calls $10.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $45.00, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $358.00 (All-In), Hero folds.

      we have left 160$ and already made a raise with 45$. this equals a stack t o raise ratio of 3.56:1 according to the basic chart we should push now. If we take a look at the chart we see again that its not that easy. In order to push I we need at least 37.6% equity (3.5:1 in the chart for NL 1000, which takes care of the 12$ dead money through the blinds) A look at the chart tells us that we don't have enough equity against reasonable limp/pushing ranges. JJ+, AK is most likely. Since I often see some midstakes making strange moves here we can be a bit looser and give him TT/AQ+. But without reads I would not judge him looser. Against TT+,AQ+ we only have 34.4% so we have to fold.
      I hope you see the big advantage to the standard raise to stack ratios. btw, if I would calculate the exact pot odds I would get 37.9% break even equity. you see its quite accurate but very simple to use.

      If you get reraised first determine your raise : stack ratio (limit you play is important!) and compare the corresponding break even equity with the reraising range which is most likely. If you have more quity than needed you can push.

      Because of the high variance we face when we go very close to the break even equity I would recommend to play very marginal situations (up to 2% edge) only if you can put your opponent on a certain range very likely.

      If you have further questions feel free to ask me!

      btw, next coaching will be on friday again, 4/11, 6:00 PM since I'm still busy with my exams. The following week it will be as usual on wednesday again.
  • 6 replies
    • vladnz
      Joined: 17.01.2007 Posts: 1,355
      hey xarry are you playing on stars under the name of semifade ?
    • xarry2
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 834
      no, I currently only play at titan and party poker
    • Mistermom
      Joined: 19.10.2007 Posts: 1,337
      I can't find a fold in sample hand No.1. Hero's stack is unknown, but even with a 20BB stack we only need about 47.5% Equity on NL1K to call while we are in the BigBlind (190/402).

      Like you mentioned I thing the range TT+, AQ is very reasonable for this opponent and there is some FE too (I guess he can fold TT, JJ and AQ. But even if he calls all his hands we have 49.2 Equity.

      Looking forward for your answer. ;)
    • dallievas
      Joined: 30.11.2007 Posts: 822
      Hi xarry2,
      unfortunately I`m not replying to your posts (because I have not much to add),
      but I`m reading them carefully.Please ,keep doing this,they are very useful.
      Thanks a lot :)
    • xarry2
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 834
      @ mistermom: correct! I just wanted to show how marginal (and on lower limits, how negative) our EV is when we play AKo against UTG. That's why I forgot to take care of the 12$ dead money and the fact that we are in the BB.

      Our Equity against TT/AQ+ is 49.18%
      break even equity is as you said something like 47.5%

      Thus we have the folowing EV for a reraise:

      40+15*FE + (1-FE)*[200+12*Equity - 190*(1-Equity)]

      0% FE:

      40+15*0+ (1)*[200+12*0.4918 - 190*(0.5082)] = +0.77BB

      you see its marginal. however as adv sss player we also take this marginal flips, thats true. and Imo its no big fault to fold here. if we don't like huge variance we can also fold here.

      I totally agree with you and I would play the hand, too. But I did not want to recommend it to everyone since its quite marginal. My purpose was rather to show how we can achieve very precise results when using the equity chart.

      If UTG folds some hands things change btw:

      he folds AQ: 25% FE (1.2/4.7) and we play against TT+/AK
      our equity decreases to 40.4%

      40+15*0.25 + (0.75)*[200+12*0.404 - 190*0.596] = - 0.69BB

      he folds AQ, TT: 36% FE (1.7/4.7) and we play against JJ+/AK
      our equity decreases to 39.8%

      40+15*0.36 + (0.64)*[200+12*0.398 - 190*0.602] = + 0.06BB

      You see its getting very close when he folds some worse hands. And its very likely that he'll do so. This also speaks for a safe fold.

      (However I would still reraise him here since I know that he'll have some deception hands)

      But since deception is hardly beeing applied on NL100- NL400 I think its a correct decision to fold here (if you play on these limits); simply to avoid big swings for just a marginal winning.

      @ dallievas: thx :) I will do so!
    • drachdudek
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Xarry, very nice job you are doing and nothing to add to your last post, i completely agree!