Thoughts about 2-7 TD

    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      So I imagine most people know that most Jxxxx hands are a favourite with 1 card to come against 1-card smooth draws. Imagine that you have a bad Q low, HH runs something like this:

      Your hand predraw was 862xx or something, you 3bet a SB open from BB, HU to the flop. He draws 2 you draw 2. Unimproved he check/calls you and you draw 2 again. Now you make QT862 and he leads into you with 1 card to come. Now assuming he's not a tough opponent: perhaps he either bluffs too much or bluffs not enough. Can you call here and pat (obviously drawing 2 if he pats)? I feel that even though against his donking range (mostly 1 card draws) we aren't a favourite, the pot odds allow us to make this play. Yet it's something that I quite literally never see anyone do.
  • 6 replies
    • madorjan
      madorjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561
      Hey Chenny,

      First off I wouldn't bet the flop unimproved with 862 in a 2 : (2) spot. Villain will rarely fold, and if he catches up to us always betting here, he'll c/r the crap out of us.

      Also our plan for the future streets is not that good. If Villain credibly can have 1 card draws on the turn, I never ever call with a hand I intend to pat with. So if our plan is to call and decide how many to draw, in the case he draws 1 we will be very transparently weak. (We usually raise pat 9s on the turn as well as some tens maybe, so our range remain rough Ts or worse.) In this case he can valuebet the crap out of us with rough tens and jacks easily.

      The second biggest problem is that if he's pat we have around 10% equity with drawing 2, that is really bad for us. I'm not really the best at TD math, but let's say he's pat 20% of the time, and we have him drawing 1 80% of the times. If he's pat, we have 10% equity, if he's not pat, we have 35% equity or around that somewhere. (Equities are based on some basic calcs with Slice.)

      So then our 'real' equity is 0.2*0.1 + 0.8*0.35 = 0.3

      So we have to have 30% equity. That equals an effective odds of about 5:2 that requires a 3 BB pot on the turn plus his additional 2 bets. That's around the potsize you set up in this example - but the calculation is optimistic, and our whole strategy will suffer from this play IMO. Also you have to count in that if you're ahead at SD, you won't get any bets out of him, while if you're behind, you'll get the 2 bets in usually. If you start folding, then the whole leveling war starts... Not counting that you're absolutely exploitably very weak in that situation, so your opponent can easily play optimally against you.

      I can sometimes see patting a Q in TD, especially in HUHU where ranges are wider and rougher. Semisnowing situations and very rough draws underneath the Q can maybe reasons to pat a Q on the turn (but I'd always do that with FEq and if I feel I can either comfortably check behind or bluff the river). I haven't played a ton of TD, but honestly I've never met a spot where this would've risen.

      So all in all, patting a Q is usually bad, because you have terrible reversed implied odds and weakens your pat range in spots where it's usually weak in itself.

      Hope you'll find this useful. Since I've recently started to play TD again, if you'd like to discuss TD or solve some math problems, I'd be interested in working with you.

      Cheers,
      Madi
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Actually the only reason I bring this up is because I've been doing something lately where I call turn with my 97s, sometimes even 87 in position. The reason is because if you raise you open yourself up to getting 3bet/possibly having to calldown (at least the turn bet) and also because if you call your 97 and villain has a Txxxx he's OOP and doesn't realise you're pat. Consequently he pats and maybe he had a smooth T, with decent equity against your 97, but he's just thrown it away. so having some hands in my river folding range after turn goes bet/call isn't really an issue for me.

      I've been playing a ton of 2-7 as part of 8game :D I really enjoy it.

      EDIT: vs this action i'd raise every single 87 for value though.

      EDIT2: based on your math we need 30% equity. The size of the pot on the turn is 4BB, so our equity needed is only 1/6 or 17%. Even if we're forced to call every river, and every time we happen to be behind, it's still calling 2BB for a pot that will be 8BB or 25% required.

      EDIT3: this hand is probably raising somewhere, but:

      6s Qd 4d 2d Th 19 44.19 24 55.81 0 0.00 0.442
      5s 3s 7h 2h 24 55.81 19 44.19 0 0.00 0.558
    • madorjan
      madorjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561
      I think the overall value of that strategy is lower than just raising in these situations, since the times they have a pat hands is far lower than having a 1 card draw, so I guess you're missing out on some value here against one card draws. (especially if the guy goes 2->1 or 2->pat) Of course, sometimes you get 3bet and have to deal with a difficult situation, but in FL games it can't be an excuse like it can be in bigbet games. Also, these situations won't come up very frequently (if they do, that has just described your opponent:) ), so I wouldn't worry that much about it.

      @Edit2: the pot is 3BB (pre 2*2SB + flop 2*1SB = 3BB), so you're getting 5:2 effective odds for the calldown (needing 28% equity). Also you have to take into account that when you're winning, you usually just win 1BB, while you're losing 2 if you lose, so that's even worse.

      @Edit3: yup, but you block 4 outs for him. So if you do it hand on range it will be lower. Maybe not 35, but 40% tops.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      it's 4BB cause we 3b it preflop. I understand what you mean by missing out on value, but conversely it allows us to call our Q low as well ;)
    • madorjan
      madorjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561
      Oh really, it's 3BB, I didn't consider the 3bet pre, because I wouldn't 3bet pre. I'll have tons of bad 3 card hands that I don't want to 3bet, so I wouldn't 3bet any 3 card hand here.

      Also, I think allowing ourselves to pat a Q is a bad excuse for any strategy. It's basically one of the most reverse implied heavy spots I can imagine ever in TD. Now missing value just so that we could get ourselves into a RIO-nightmare doesn't sound like a good proposition for me.:)

      I'm not a NL expert, but the whole theory just sounds like to me as considering a 5bet all in with 74o vs an UTG player 100bbs deep. In theory, it may be the case sometimes that it's the best play, and in theory you should spend time analyzing it, but in reality it's so rare and you need a so special environment that it basically will just remain theory.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by madorjan
      Oh really, it's 3BB, I didn't consider the 3bet pre, because I wouldn't 3bet pre. I'll have tons of bad 3 card hands that I don't want to 3bet, so I wouldn't 3bet any 3 card hand here.

      Also, I think allowing ourselves to pat a Q is a bad excuse for any strategy. It's basically one of the most reverse implied heavy spots I can imagine ever in TD. Now missing value just so that we could get ourselves into a RIO-nightmare doesn't sound like a good proposition for me.:)

      I'm not a NL expert, but the whole theory just sounds like to me as considering a 5bet all in with 74o vs an UTG player 100bbs deep. In theory, it may be the case sometimes that it's the best play, and in theory you should spend time analyzing it, but in reality it's so rare and you need a so special environment that it basically will just remain theory.
      he has a polarised range, slowplays some of hsi hands... IM ALLIN!!!

      change the hand to 742 then, doesn't matter too much. I'm just proposing when the pot is bigger past a certain point, getting to showdown becomes more and more important. also in my calculation i considered the reverse implied odds HOWEVER i'm personally folding this hand after this action.