Any leak from my graph /stats?

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I am playing NL4 SH on William Hill at the moment. The sample size is 20793 hands



      BB/100 = 9.14

      1) Is the constantly down-mowing non-showdown profits line a sign of a big leak?
      2) Is the graph overall decent?
  • 15 replies
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Silver
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Winning in SB but loosing in bb? And losing in EP, and you seems more inclinced to go to SD from MP then EP.
      You seem happy to 3 bet from the blinds on the micros I am less happy to do this as they will call to much 3 bets in general. I can tell you that I used to 3 bet to much from the blinds. If you find a player that folds to 3 bet like 80% of the time go nuts with the 3 betting! Redline on the micros is hard to have a Non SD winnings cause micro players dosen't fold!
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Oops, some of the data might have been a little bit off as I forgot that I end up playing HU every once in a while while waiting for a new table to fill up. Can one filter it out and post a new graph?

      And I agree on the 3bets. I am trying to reduce my 3bet frequency at the moment.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      1) Is the constantly down-mowing non-showdown profits line a sign of a big leak?

      Ignore the red/blue lines. Focus on the green one!

      2) Is the graph overall decent?

      BB/100 = 9.14 is very good.


      The red and blue lines are style dependant. They can also be influenced by the players at the table.

      For instance I play around 31-28 and most of my money does indeed come from redline. During the weekends though cause there are more fish my red line often drops, as you make money from fish calling, not from making them fold.

      Overall, Do not worry about your red/blue line its only the green line that matters! 9bb/100 is definitely something to be proud of!
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      BB/100 = 9.14 is very good.


      1) Is the sample size good enough to really tell that I am doing well? A few thousand hands earlier I had a winrate of 20-30BBs/100. Now it is slowly starting to constantly decrease + I am currently on what one might call an upswing maybe. I am worried that once I hit the next downswing my winrate is going to decrease dramatically, revealing my true winrate, which I might not like, lol.

      2) What do you think of my stats? As Saren113 already pointed out, there are some anomalies regarding position-based stats such as my winrate from BB and EP.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      You are right that 20k isn't really a big enough sample to conclude that you aren't just on a heater. However looking at your stats so far it does seem to come from playing well, not just being a fish on a heater :s_cool:

      imo your stats look similar to that of 50nl regs which is definitely a good thing!

      It would be useful for you to post some more in-depth stats such as your flop-river cbets and fold to cbet stats as well as aggression etc

      But in general things look good, keep crushing!
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Thanks a lot for your very kind words :) it gives me more confidence!
    • NeverBluffing30
      NeverBluffing30
      Basic
      Joined: 10.12.2011 Posts: 6
      Most of it looks solid.

      You MP 3bet is 5.1
      Your CO 3bet is 5.8

      I think there should be a slightly larger gap here. Your MP 3bet may be a little too high, unless you're finding villains in your games are often not positionally aware (they have as wide a PFR range UTG as in LP). Not a major leak, but something to look at. (could be affected by sample size/variance).

      You also might be overly aggro from EP. Maybe see if there were spots vs. villains with bluff-heavy flop raising ranges where you're b/3bing and shutting out their air range, when you might get much more value by b/c and giving them rope to spew on the next street.

      Maybe there are spots OOP when instead of c-betting vs. floaty/stationy villains, you're much better off just check/folding flop. Or spots where you have a value hand or medium strength made hand and you're up against a villain with a very high Bet IP vs. Missed Cbet stat (80%+), and you can extract value by c/c or c/r instead of auto-c-betting.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Thanks, will definitely look at that! :)
    • mrauter
      mrauter
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      Joined: 24.03.2010 Posts: 200
      Your WTSD% is too low.
      Since you have a strong preflop range you can bluff catch a lot vs bluffy happy players, remember you just have to win 1 in 3 times against a pot bet to BE.

      And you probably should be looser on the BB, you usually have huge implied odds on these stakes against most players, and it cost you 1bb less to play the pot.
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by mrauter
      Your WTSD% is too low.
      Since you have a strong preflop range you can bluff catch a lot vs bluffy happy players, remember you just have to win 1 in 3 times against a pot bet to BE.

      And you probably should be looser on the BB, you usually have huge implied odds on these stakes against most players, and it cost you 1bb less to play the pot.
      I'm not sure that being looser on the BB is necessarily a good thing? You're out of position and are going to miss often. Generally, I'm calling only in multiway pots with suited connectors and low pp's for set value... Otherwise for me it's either 3bet or fold, obviously villain dependant.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      I think when OOP in the BB you should generally play pretty tight.

      The only time that I am super loose on the BB is vs SB opens. I personally have around a 50% VPIP vs SB opens. Its hard to counter a good reg in position. We know their range is wide and we have a discount on calling their open. Add to that we are in position and its a win win :s_evil:
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I think when OOP in the BB you should generally play pretty tight.


      Well, if whe are playing against a regular, what exactly do you mean by tight? Do you suggest folding hands like QJs against a BU open aso.?
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      My general strategy for defending in the BB vs CO/BUT opens is hands that can make good bluff catchers, So yes QJs is a call.

      I just dont defend stuff like A5s/97s etc as generally we need position to play these hands profitably.

      Like i was saying about SB vs BB however, I defend pretty much Q7s+ any suited connector. A whole bunch of stuff. I also 3bet a decent chunk too
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Thanks for the great ideas!
    • verneer
      verneer
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.08.2009 Posts: 366
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      I am playing NL4 SH on William Hill at the moment. The sample size is 20793 hands
      https://img703.imageshack.us/img703/8601/resultsf.png
      https://img859.imageshack.us/img859/7293/statsgx.png

      BB/100 = 9.14

      1) Is the constantly down-mowing non-showdown profits line a sign of a big leak?
      2) Is the graph overall decent?
      Change the background to the light one :)

      https://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5751/hm2psa.jpg

      1. Not necessarily - many winning players lose at non-showdown.
      2. Overall shape - so far, so good!