[NL20-NL50] Is it posible to fold a set here? nl20 sh 44

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 4,966
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20)
      Hero ($55.33)
      UTG ($35.15)
      UTG+1 ($46.85)
      CO ($10.60)
      BTN ($21.18)

      Dealt to Hero 4:spade: 4:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.30

      FLOP ($1.50) 6:club: 9:diamond: 4:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1, BTN folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $7.40, SB raises to $19.50 (AI), Hero calls $12.10

      BTN 22/15/3.6 209 hands

      SB 18/14/inf 170 hands

      looks like the only overpair which could be there is TT, ok maybe JJ. But its likely that he would 3bet them. But also would he stack off against me with overpairs? He could also put me on set.

      AJs posible here?
  • 5 replies
    • PickoCro
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 83
      I don t think you can ever fold here... I have come up with the tightest range i could think of JJ-99,66,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,KcQc,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c (i still think there s a lot more flushdraws with overcards in his range, and maybe something like 69s or 5c3c) and you still have 62% equity here, even if you think he d 3bet jj and 1010 and he cant have them here you have 40% equity which again you cant fold after you 3bet...

      And thats just what a normal player would have there... Since he s relatively unknown (170 hands), i assume he s not a reg, but some type of recreational player, so he could even have something like tptk, a straight draw, maybe even some slowplayed aces, king or queens...

      Since you posted the hand i tend to think you called and he had you beat here, but i think it was a good call, that just got coolered...

      Best regards...
    • obrutmaster
      Joined: 16.08.2010 Posts: 435
      tought spot but from a regular that plays 18/14 OOP i think he could have there some nut flush draws AcJc, AcTc, AcQc (50%) he could 3bet there. 7c8c i think arround 10 combos of FD, 6 combos of sets, and maybe JJ 6 combos with TT i didn't think he will play so fast. i think this is a cooler and you have to call there, cause of the flush draws, but if the board was rainbow this spot is discutable...
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      besides A high flushdraws he can have there any two pair hand on the BU, so you can´t fold your lower set even fi you give him only range 96s, 66, 99, 7c8c, Acxc.

      best regards,
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 4,966
      besides A high flushdraws he can have there any two pair hand on the BU

      yeah, but the one who raises is SB, he should not call with very wide range, especially 18/14, he would likley 3bet small suited connector imo.
    • CallumN
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      Time to embrace variance and flick it in!

      GL fading clubs

      I run like jesus to insta turn a 4 to lock it up!