[NL2-NL10] Bluffing the river versus decent TAG

    • PoolGod
      PoolGod
      Basic
      Joined: 08.11.2009 Posts: 4
      Hi, I just wondered about if this bluff is ok versus a TAG regular that plays in my games on 888.

      He plays 16/14 over 2k hands and seems decent. I would imagine he's a biggish winner at this limit. He's pretty aggressive post flop but is also probably capable of laying down one pair type hands to big pressure.

      His turn barrel is a low 37% and I imagine that's even lower when he's oop. I would imagine he see's me as a semi decent player at least, who rarely gets out of line, so I would imagine that my image is clean enough.

      I don't 3bet pre because I think he's likely to play 4bet or fold versus me and that would be a pretty ugly spot but by flatting, I get to keep in the weaker parts of his range and get to do fun stuff like I do in this hand :)

      On the flop, I think the call is pretty easy. He cbets 77% but as I mentioned above, slows down a lot on the turn, so I think i)I can get to showdown enough of the time and ii)I can turn my hand into a bluff depending on how the board runs out.

      When he checks the turn, I think his range is capped at one pair type hands, JJ with a club, Qx, maybe just the naked ace of clubs, although I think he barrels that at least some of the time.

      I don't think he's going to fold very often for just one barrel with those hands but I do feel he'll fold to a decent river bet on a brick.

      We get the river brick, so can we bomb it? His WTSD is a ludicrous 15%, which means he's definitely a candidate for bluffing.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($23.71)
      BB ($20)
      UTG ($21.98)
      UTG+1 ($19.61)
      UTG+2 ($20)
      MP1 ($24.14)
      MP2 ($20)
      Hero ($28.08)
      BTN ($15)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, MP1 raises to $0.70, fold, Hero calls $0.70, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.70) 7:spade: 8:club: Q:club:

      MP1 bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

      TURN ($4.20) 7:spade: 8:club: Q:club: 6:club:

      MP1 checks, Hero bets $3.60, MP1 calls $3.60

      RIVER ($11.40) 7:spade: 8:club: Q:club: 6:club: 2:spade:

      MP1 checks, Hero bets ????
  • 7 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      It looks like a good spot to bet turn bet river. He's going to be calling turn with stuff like 99, TT, 55, any pair with a club, and then folding the river. he may also fold a weak queen since the turn is kind of scary for him.
    • michel2311
      michel2311
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.11.2011 Posts: 2,121
      I would have checked the turn here. You have air and there is a possible made flush or straigt on the board. Only thing you could hit on the river is an overpair. On the river i should play check/fold.
    • PoolGod
      PoolGod
      Basic
      Joined: 08.11.2009 Posts: 4
      The fact I have air is more reason to bet surely?

      When he checks, he's either giving up, or has a hand with some showdown value that isn't a flush and probably not a straight.

      I'm pretty certain he would continue betting if he somehow had a flush and would probably continue betting with a straight. So, I think his range is definitely capped and given his really low WTSD, firing two streets here seemed like a good line.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      I put all the marbles in. It needs to work more often because we are risking more. But im pretty sure it works 80% of the time

      Punish these weak c/c lines
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PoolGod,

      Preflop: Most likely I'd rather prefer to 3bet it here, the hand isn't the greatest to play in multiway pot. Especially if you have loose opponents behind you. We don't want to overvalue our hand postflop with TP.

      As played
      Postflop: Even if you float the flop then I am not a huge fan of Betting the turn anyways unless I plan to 2nd barrel it. Doesn't make sense to Bet only the turn since he has a lot of FD type of PPs in his range which are going to Call on the turn. I'd rather Check it behind actually in those spots. Especially while he is capable of Check/Calling both streets even with Qx hands which definitely play this way from his style.

      Best Regards.
    • PoolGod
      PoolGod
      Basic
      Joined: 08.11.2009 Posts: 4
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello PoolGod,

      Preflop: Most likely I'd rather prefer to 3bet it here, the hand isn't the greatest to play in multiway pot. Especially if you have loose opponents behind you. We don't want to overvalue our hand postflop with TP.

      As played
      Postflop: Even if you float the flop then I am not a huge fan of Betting the turn anyways unless I plan to 2nd barrel it. Doesn't make sense to Bet only the turn since he has a lot of FD type of PPs in his range which are going to Call on the turn. I'd rather Check it behind actually in those spots. Especially while he is capable of Check/Calling both streets even with Qx hands which definitely play this way from his style.

      Best Regards.
      We're in the CO, so unless BTN calls, we're going to have position post flop even if it does go multiway.

      I'm not really sure what 3betting achieves against someone we perceive to be tight and decent. He's likely going to be 4betting or folding vs my 3bets pre, neither of which are good for our hand but by flatting, we keep in the parts of his range we have dominated and can get good value from post flop.

      Getting on to post flop, this is not a line I would take against most villains but this guy has an incredibly low WTSD frequency, which means he's folding way too often.

      When the ultimate scare card pops up on the turn and he checks, is he really going to call 2 barrels more with just an overpair or a decent Queen?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      When the ultimate scare card pops up on the turn and he checks, is he really going to call 2 barrels more with just an overpair or a decent Queen?

      Me wasn't playing on the table, I don't know much about the opponent so I can't answer you this.