variance @ cashgames

    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      how much variance can be expected for cashgames?

      Lets say, a solid player has played 1000.000 hands, and hasnt changed his playing style at all. He had a winrate of 5 big bets /100 hands. What would be the range of the nr. of bb/100hands he could be in if he plays, say 10.000 hands, or 5000, or even 1000? Anyone has an idea, or knows an article on this subject?
  • 5 replies
    • Sebra
      Sebra
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.08.2006 Posts: 1,121
      Sure there is a mathematical background and I can upload an Excel simulation if you want to. But to give you a soft skill answer: You will run worse than you would've ever expected! ;)

      5000 or 10000 hands doesnt really say anything, you can be 10ptBB and more above or below your real winrate.
    • stuff1987
      stuff1987
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 10
      I'm actually writing an article on this for the diamond promotion, will post it this weekend
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      awesome answers!

      Im waiting in anticipation for the article, stuff.

      I will keep faith then, -0.85PTBB/100 in my first 6261 hands. Thought it was pretty bad, since I was hoping for sometin around +5PTBB/100 as an avg. profit. Ill keep hopes up!
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Maybe question apart from this post,but is somehow connected...What was (is) your +PTBB/100 playing 100.000 hands on >NL50. There is a lot of people saying can be also >5PTBB/100, but i think in general if you are solid wining player can be only 1PTBB/100?
    • OnciuFlorin
      OnciuFlorin
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2008 Posts: 24
      i don't know if i understood exactly your question! So let me tell you what i understand from that. So a solid player has played 1 million hands and his win rate is 5 big blinds at 100 hands, from here it result that in 1 million hands he won 5000 big blinds, but if we know at how many hands the player win from that million that he played we can made an average. For example at 10 hands he won 2, at the next 20 he wins 0, and so on. After that we cam make an geometrical average at find out a coefficient of win! fine...but exactly we can't find out a answer because all the calculations me make are statistically, and I don't know if that would help with something. In a casino or at WSOP I don't think the player has into account this thing! Anyway is an interesting matter this. Hope you understand my idea.