Poker maths question !

    • Gajus11
      Gajus11
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      Joined: 24.05.2011 Posts: 4
      I search everywhere but, sadly don't found this one. Or maybe i missed it. So it would be awesome if someone can help me or write a link where i can find this information.

      If i have Q :club: 8 :heart: pre-flop. And i need to calculate probability to get these Q :diamond: 8 :spade: J :club: cards on the Flop.

      So my question is simple how to calculate this?
  • 14 replies
    • gadget51
      gadget51
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      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Hi there Gajus,

      I will move this to the no limit beginners discussion where it may get a proper response. :)

      Regards,

      Mal.
    • SRBSavic1
      SRBSavic1
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      Joined: 11.05.2011 Posts: 370
      how do you know its no limit? :megusta:
    • matel17
      matel17
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      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 1,278
      The probability of flopping two pair using both hole cards is 2%.

      If you're asking about those specific cards of that specific suit than it's obviously much less but I don't see how that question might help you.
    • ZeroDegrees
      ZeroDegrees
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      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 743
      You calculate it as what cards miss:

      44/50 x 44/49 x 44/48. Thats your probabillity to miss EXACTLY 2 pairs. Thats 72%. So You have arond 28%.

      PS This is true for general 2 pairs, not that specific hand, but u got the idea now
    • ZeroDegrees
      ZeroDegrees
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      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 743
      Originally posted by matel17
      The probability of flopping two pair using both hole cards is 2%.

      If you're asking about those specific cards of that specific suit than it's obviously much less but I don't see how that question might help you.


      Can we meet and play pls?;)
    • Gajus11
      Gajus11
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      Joined: 24.05.2011 Posts: 4
      Originally posted by ZeroDegrees
      You calculate it as what cards miss:

      44/50 x 44/49 x 44/48. Thats your probabillity to miss EXACTLY 2 pairs. Thats 72%. So You have arond 28%.

      PS This is true for general 2 pairs, not that specific hand, but u got the idea now
      So to get Q :diamond: 8 :spade: J :club: . I will need to do like this: 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48 ?
    • lynius
      lynius
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      Joined: 15.01.2011 Posts: 382
      Originally posted by Gajus11
      So to get Q :diamond: 8 :spade: J :club: . I will need to do like this: 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48 ?
      Yes.
    • lynius
      lynius
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      Joined: 15.01.2011 Posts: 382
      Actually. I messed up.

      The first draw from 50 cards, you have 3 good.

      3/50

      The second draw from 49 cards, you have 2 good.

      2/49

      The final draw from 48 cards, you have 1 good.

      1/48

      Therefore:

      3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = ....

      Glad I rectified that. For that specific order on the board, then the YES response stands.
    • ZeroDegrees
      ZeroDegrees
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      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 743
      Originally posted by lynius
      Originally posted by Gajus11
      So to get Q :diamond: 8 :spade: J :club: . I will need to do like this: 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48 ?
      Yes.
      NO, dont work that way
    • Gajus11
      Gajus11
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      Joined: 24.05.2011 Posts: 4
      Originally posted by ZeroDegrees
      NO, dont work that way
      Why not because its not enough to say that this is not the right way. You need to write how to calculate correctly. So I look forward to your reply.
    • ZeroDegrees
      ZeroDegrees
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      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 743
      Sry for the lazy answer. If you want those exact cards you can calculate it as 3/50 x 2/49 x 1/48 and then divide by 6. The available order that are possible for 3 cards. Its called permutation if you wanna google it.
    • ScouseRob
      ScouseRob
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      Joined: 08.05.2009 Posts: 8
      Originally posted by Gajus11
      So to get Q :diamond: 8 :spade: J :club: . I will need to do like this: 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48 ?
      That is the probability of getting exactly Q:diamond: 8:spade: J:club: in that order on the flop.

      If order is unimportant and 8:spade: Q:diamond: J:club: is permissable then:

      3/50 x 2/49 x 1/48 is the probability you want.

      (or 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48 x 3P3)

      Rob

      (Edit: Simultaneously posted with ZeroDegrees.)
    • ZeroDegrees
      ZeroDegrees
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      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 743
      But then again, I'm drunk, so what do I know;)
    • Kitsune101
      Kitsune101
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      Joined: 20.01.2012 Posts: 9
      @OP: You want to calculated the possibility of the flopping Qd8sJc in that order and suit??

      PS. If that is the case your hand does not matter.