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[NL2-NL10] nl2 fr partypoker - set mining

    • slipkn6t
      slipkn6t
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2011 Posts: 5,705
      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2:
      $1.48
      MP1:
      $0.78
      MP2:
      $0.99
      MP3:
      $0.93
      CO:
      $2.93
      BU:
      $2.00
      SB (Hero):
      $0.83
      BB:
      $0.79
      UTG1:
      $0.51


      Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 4.
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, BU folds, Hero calls $0.01, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0.1) Q, 9, 4 (5 players)
      Hero bets $0.06, BB folds, UTG2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.1.

      I have 10 to 1 pot odds preflop, while I hit the set once every 8.5 flops on average => I can profitably setmine.
      1. What's the minimum potodds do I need to profitably setmine with 40bb stack? 2 limpers and I'm on SB (8 to 1)? Or is 1 limper enough (6 to 1)? The thing is when the pot is not raised preflop they often giveup postflop too easily, I mean the implied odds are not great.
      2. Maybe I should check this flop to induce some bluffs?
  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by slipkn6t
      I have 10 to 1 pot odds preflop, while I hit the set once every 8.5 flops on average => I can profitably setmine.
      This is not correct because
      • You still can lose the hand when you go all-in on this board and face 99 (5% equity), J:hT (60%

        Board: Q:diamond: 9:heart: 4:heart:
               Equity     Win     Tie
        MP2    40.30%  40.30%   0.00% { JhTh }
        MP3    59.70%  59.70%   0.00% { 44 }

        ) etc.
      • You need to double-up in order to compensate the 88% times you DO NOT hit a set
      • You need someone to actually double up from


      Mostly I look for 3+ limpers in front of me

      I also bet potsized here and not 2/3. This way you build up the pot to the maximum which goes hand in hand with the objective of doubling up

      Best regards,
      Gerv