[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #18 24.01.12

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from Jan 24th, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Tuesday, January 31st at 6 PM GMT.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($8.43)
      Hero ($10.15)
      UTG ($4.48)
      UTG+1 ($14.22)
      CO ($4.85)
      BTN ($5.89)

      Dealt to Hero T:club: K:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.30

      FLOP ($0.80) J:club: T:spade: 6:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($0.80) J:club: T:spade: 6:diamond: K:spade:

      SB bets $0.76, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2.24

      RIVER ($6.80) J:club: T:spade: 6:diamond: K:spade: 6:heart:

      SB bets $5.03 (AI), Hero folds

      SB wins $6.46

      Villain's stats: VPIP:66 PFR:32 AF:0.9 (Agg freq:23%) H:90

      I raised the turn, because i wanted to protec my hand, and he shove on the river. Fold is good here?
  • 5 replies
    • KozakFB
      KozakFB
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2011 Posts: 395
      I can't really find a fold here tbh unless I'm certain he has quads.

      The only hands I figure that we're losing to is any 6, A/Q, K/J, K/K and Q/9. Villain checked the flop so I would rule out K/J, K/K and Q/9.

      The King sparked interest to the villain so I'd assume we can narrow his hands down to A/K, A/Q or any K/x. A set of 6's is possible and he is now betting to protect his hand against a straight. Quads just seems so hard to believe..

      I dunno..

      I hope I don't sound stupid :s_cry:
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,069
      preflop call is proably ok, becasue he would not fold to 3bet, and if he calls vs our 3bet we might be dominated more often, while here if he steals with K2, he can loose his entire stack with top pair. But probably with T kicker we ourselves would not want to play for stacks with top pair.

      On flop I think we need start betting to extract value and protect against draws.

      On turn some draws comple, but he does not necesarily has the straigt yet, so we can raise for value I think. But then probably we will have to stack off. But he still can have top pair and weaker two pair, so ok to stack off.

      On the river not sure at all what to do. Now his 6x gets there. The problem is that low AF. But he still might have just top pair. So I guess we have to call there.
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      I think the main thing to note here is that villain seems fairly LAG in his preflop hand selection but loose and passive postflop, due to the low AF.

      I would assume in this case that villain would play fit or fold even as the PFA'r.

      Pre: Standard no need to 3b as we ISO ourselves vs better. I prefer playing a small pot IP here by just calling.

      Flop: I would be stabbing the turn here IP since villain seems fairly LP we can bet for val/prot vs draws and weaker pairs he may prefer to c/c with. I think villain not very strong here after the flop check most of the time. I would assume he cbets with TP+ here and probably c/f or c/c everything else. He may slowplay sets and 2pr here sometimes however (JT/JJ/TT/66).

      Turn: Completes some draws (AQ/Q9) and we are now behind to KJ if villain check TP to us which I feel unlikely, so I would rule that out mostly.

      I dont think that villain is aggressive enough to be leading draws here so it is TP+ here. (AK/KQ or sets and AQ/Q9).

      Im not sure what I would do on the turn here. I would feel inclined to play WAWB/pot control and just call the turn and try to get to showdown cheaply. I think this would prevent us from having to make marginal decisions in a bloated pot or isolating ourselves vs better. However, there are a few bad river cards eg, A/K/Q/J and maybe :spade: 's. I think we also miss a lot of value this way.

      Alternatively, we could raise for value against one pair type hands, specifically KQ/AK and charge potential flush draws, despite being less concerned about them due to villains passivity.

      I would probably prefer to call for pot control and get to showdown.

      River: When villain shoves nearly full pot into us on the river he is probably scared of us checking behind. So it is a bet for "value" and not a bluff IMO (since villains seems fairly passive).

      I would estimate his range to look something like:

      JJ-TT,66,AQs+,KQs,Q9s,AQo+,KQo,Q9o

      If we think villain is capable of value betting AK/KQ in this way then I think we have the required equity to call:



      Board: J:club: T:spade: 6:diamond:  K:spade:  6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     69.81%  69.81%   0.00% { JJ-TT, 66, AQs+, KQs, Q9s, AQo+, KQo, Q9o }
      BB     30.19%  30.19%   0.00% { KdTc }



      if not then it is a fold IMO:



      Board: J:club: T:spade: 6:diamond:  K:spade:  6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB    100.00% 100.00%   0.00% { JJ-TT, 66, AQs, Q9s, AQo, Q9o }
      BB      0.00%   0.00%   0.00% { KdTc }
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      Preflop: I'd rather raise preflop, he's loose why not take his money from preflop. Unless he can't fold postflop.

      Flop: I think a bet here is a better option. We need to get some info from him, since we only call preflop.

      Turn: Would do the same thing here, not for protection but rather for value.

      River: It's a difficult spot. He's passive so his push should mean something. I think it's a bit odd, most of the hand that beats us/we beat surely he would shove those on the turn like JJ,KK,TT,66,JT,KT,AQ,T6,J6,K6,Q9. So the only hand that he could have with this line are a failed draw bluffs or some combination like Q6. If we look at his stats it's unlikely he'd make that kind of bluffs, so most likely he had Q6 or maybe AK? If we include AK(really doubt this), I think we could call since we got 50% equity, while we need 30%. However shoving with AK is pretty much bluffs, and he's not a bluffer. So I think it's a fold for me here, just can't see any hand that we beat that could go on the river like this.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      Preflop: Depends a lot on the villain but usually he has a very wide stealing range so for that given reason you can easily even 3bet it here. He most likely is either capable of calling with a lot worse hands and at the same time we are taking the initiative. But of course if you are good postflop then just flatting would be another option.

      As played
      Flop: If you play it passively preflop then this is one of the boards you should definitely take a stab! There is no other way to play the hand than Bet the flop and protect your hand from any kind of draws and of course maybe even value from weaker Tx/PPs.

      As played
      Turn: Raising is totally overplayed here. What's the plan if we get 3bet? You practically will be against strong made hands mainly. Also the question is how many worse hands pay you anyways? For that given reason we should rather consider taking pot control than raising for value. Kind of overplayed.

      As played
      River: Nothing much to add here.

      Best Regards.