[NL2-NL10] NL2 - FR - JJ - ship on draw heavy board

    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: $2.00
      BTN: $1.25
      SB: $2.00
      Hero (BB): $2.00
      UTG: $3.41 vp 18/pf 9/af 1.0/wtsd 29/wsd 100/h 33
      UTG+1: $2.16
      MP: $1.86
      MP+1: $4.09
      LP: $2.65

      SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has J:diamond: J:heart:

      UTG calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.02, fold, Hero raises to $0.12, UTG calls $0.10, fold

      Flop: ($0.27, 2 players) 2:heart: 9:heart: 5:spade:
      Hero bets $0.19, UTG raises to $0.38, Hero raises to $1.88 and is all-in ???

      Hello,

      Two pairs are unlikely so I put him on overpairs, top pairs with A9 or K9, sets and draws. Thought about calling, but several draws are possible so I decided to ship it right away. Overplayed? To ship it I need 42%, and I got 60% even without the draws.


      Board: 2:heart: 9:heart: 5:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+1  42.10%  41.06%   1.04% { QQ-99, 55, 22, A9s, K9s, AhJh, A9o, K9o }
      BB     57.90%  56.86%   1.04% { JdJh }


      Do I put him on the right range? I'm not sure, he got 18/9/1.0 so he's raised should mean something strong.

      Thanks,
      cpers
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello cpers,

      Doubt that the guy is limping with QQ. What I would myself do here I'd CB bigger ~$0,24. Afterwards decide what to do, either I'd ship the money or just fold.

      On those limits as we expect even the opponent be able to fold 9x hands here and maybe even draws it's fine to play for the stacks. Especially not having much information even on the opponent.

      But now again it's really dependent on the opponent, a lot of them wont even raise with TPs in those spots but rather take passive approach, especially if you would have done the CB bigger. ;) It would change a lot.

      Best Regards.
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      What I would myself do here I'd CB bigger ~$0,24.
      It's a HU pot, so I thought 3/4 is a good size for a cbet here. Why bet bigger? Is it because he limped from UTG?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by cpers
      What I would myself do here I'd CB bigger ~$0,24.
      It's a HU pot, so I thought 3/4 is a good size for a cbet here. Why bet bigger? Is it because he limped from UTG?
      Not that but because it's very likely if he has a hand he is paying you the same amount. Sometimes it might even avoid them to min-raise with just TP type of hands. :) And of course we gain bigger protection.