[NL2-NL10] A8s 22.01.

    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1612274
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $11.25 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 10, 3B: 2, AF: 4.3, Hands: 353
      UTG+1: $2.59 - VPIP: 66, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 94
      UTG+2: $1.64 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 10, 3B: 8, AF: 0.0, Hands: 88
      MP1: $1.93 - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 1, AF: 1.9, Hands: 512
      MP2: $2.48 - VPIP: 73, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0.1, Hands: 22
      CO: $1.41 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0.9, Hands: 49
      BTN: $8.83 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 2.7, Hands: 54
      SB: $4.79 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 2, AF: 7.5, Hands: 344
      Hero (BB): $5.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 2.5, Hands: 256404

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with 8 :diamond: A :diamond:
      1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.05, 3 folds, Hero checks

      Flop: ($0.17) 7 :heart: 9 :spade: A :spade: (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.15, UTG+1 calls $0.15, MP2 calls $0.15

      Turn: ($0.62) 8 :heart: (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.45, UTG+1 calls $0.45, MP2 folds

      River: ($1.52) 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.65, UTG+1 raises to $1.94, Hero calls $1.29

      Isolate preflop?

      I need 23,89% equity.
      This could be a realistic range for a lot of people like him on this limits:

      Board: 7:heart: 9:spade: A:spade:  8:heart:  3:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    76.12%  73.13%   2.99% { Ad8d }
      UTG+1  23.88%  20.90%   2.99% { AA, 99-77, AQs+, A9s-A7s, A3s, 97s+, 87s, AQo+, A9o-A7o, A3o, 97o+, 87o }

      Also worse scenario:

      Board: 7:heart: 9:spade: A:spade:  8:heart:  3:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    30.43%  26.09%   4.35% { Ad8d }
      UTG+1  69.57%  65.22%   4.35% { AA, 99-77, A9s-A7s, A3s, JTs, A9o-A7o, A3o, JTo }


      So call should be fine because a lot draws also bust so we have to add some bluffs. Would you agree?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sikac,

      Rather Bet the turn bigger and ship the river yourself than play it this way. ;)

      We want to gain maximum value from his side with our hand. But as played kind of dumb spot, doubt the guy would even shove like that with a lot weaker 2pairs on the river since he most likely would have done that on the turn already by protecting his hand. So I might even be towards Bet/Fold if I'd pick the block-bet line since that's the idea of the small bet, ain't it?

      But of course the question is if we really could do that as Bet/Fold. ;) Therefore as I suggested you, bet the turn bigger and ship the river yourself!

      Best Regards.