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An observation on variance

    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,748
      I was told -- perhaps in one of the articles on PokerStrategy -- that 5CD is less subject to variance than other forms of poker. Perhaps so.

      I started playing 5CD in August last year, before EvGalois posted his now famous articles on the game. The first downswing in this graph ended when I read those articles. Cool, I thought -- I have knowledges!

      Not so fast.


      I recently experienced a downswing of roughly the same magnitude.

      This prompted to me to re-examine the first one.
      I found that in each I had:
      4 sets that lost to higher sets.
      at least one pat straight or flush that got beat on the draw
      Several two-pair hands that were beaten by people drawing 3 and hitting trips or better 2pr. The big difference in the first one is that I was betting too many -- in other words > 0 -- garbage hands.
      So perhaps the initial "downswing" was not entirely due to abysmal play.

      The thing that stands out in the graph is the number of v-shaped notches, and the similarity in their sizes. I'm wondering if they represent days when I should not have been playing at all -- tired, bored etc -- followed by normal days.

      As far as my overall play goes, I don't think I'm ready to move up a limit.
      I have only recently started attacking the blinds harder, and there is still work to do on flush and OESD play as well as 3Betting and how to play against a 3Bet.
  • 7 replies
    • Huricano
      Huricano
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2010 Posts: 2,228
      ~13.5k hands
      ~35$ = ~175 BB

      175/13500 * 100 = ~1.3

      From my perspective It's about ~1.3 BB/100
      Oh c'mon you can be better!
    • Huricano
      Huricano
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2010 Posts: 2,228
      Ok, I stole some old Russians graphs from they forum, don't tell'em :)

      lolDRAMAturg (now play better):


      Barseqqq:
      http://www.imageshack.us/photo/my-images/256/screenhunter02dec262350.png/
      http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/403/screenhunter03dec262350.png/

      Delucia777:

    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,748
      Originally posted by Huricano
      175/13500 * 100 = ~1.3
      From my perspective It's about ~1.3 BB/100
      Oh c'mon you can be better!
      Thanks for the encouragement! :)

      In fact, if you look at the graph, from just over 10000 hands on, my winrate picks up quite a bit. That is about the time of the thread about raising flush draws.

      That, plus more aggressive blind stealing has made a big difference.
      From that point to the end -- including the downswing -- the win rate is 3.39 BB/100

      Before I even think about the next limit, though, I'll play another 10K hands at this one.
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,955
      When I was moving up, I took 20BB shots at the next limit once I had 120BB. I got to FL $3/$6 in about 10 weeks starting from $25 on 0.1/0.2. Just go for it.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,748
      Again, thanks for the encouragement.
      However, yesterday, after posting my lovely geroff, I dropped nearly $10 in 500 hands.
      Again, I'm hitting sets and losing to guys hitting flushes, or having pat hands whacked by villains hitting draws.

      I had lots o' sleep too, so that's not it.
      Strangely, a couple of people I see a lot had also dropped large piles of $.
      Maybe it's one of those spatial phenomenon things -- you know, where the earth passes through a region of space where good looking cards are really bad.

      Or maybe it's just variance <sigh>
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,748
      Just as example of the way my week has gone:
      Overall an up session, but admittedly I cut it short when I was up 10BB

      Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
      PokerStars Limit 5 Card Draw $0.10/$0.20 - 6 players

      UTG: $4.94 (Hero)
      UTG+1: $3.58
      CO: $3.95
      Button: $4.43
      SB: $1.41
      BB: $5.95

      Dealing Hands: ($0.15) 4:club: T:heart: 4:diamond: 6:club: 4:spade: (6 players)
      Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Button calls $0.20, 2 folds

      First Draw: ($0.55) (2 players)
      Hero discards 1, Button discards 1,
      4:club: 4:diamond: 6:club: 4:spade: || 6:diamond:
      Hero bets $0.20, Button raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $0.60, Button raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.20

      Hero mucked
      Button showed 7:heart: 8:heart: 5:heart: 6:heart: 9:heart: , a straight flush, Five to Nine
      Button won $2.05
      (Rake: $0.10)
    • Huricano
      Huricano
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2010 Posts: 2,228
      Sometimes even 5 card draw can be brutall:

      Poker Stars $10/$20 Limit 5 Card Draw - 2 players - View hand 1621147
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Pre Draw: (1.5 SB)
      Bessenok raises, Maestro Shao 3-bets, Bessenok caps!, Maestro Shao calls

      First Draw: (8 SB) (2 players)
      Maestro Shao draws 3, Bessenok draws 1
      Maestro Shao checks, Bessenok bets, Maestro Shao raises, Bessenok 3-bets, Maestro Shao calls

      Final Pot: 10 BB
      Bessenok shows Q :spade: Q :heart: Q :club: 7 :spade: 3 :heart: (three of a kind, Queens)
      Maestro Shao shows K :club: K :diamond: K :heart: 9 :club: 2 :club: (three of a kind, Kings)
      Maestro Shao wins 9.975 BB
      (Rake: $0.50)

      10 hands later...

      Poker Stars $10/$20 Limit 5 Card Draw - 2 players - View hand 1621149
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Pre Draw: (1.5 SB)
      Bessenok raises, Maestro Shao 3-bets, Bessenok caps!, Maestro Shao calls

      First Draw: (8 SB) (2 players)
      Maestro Shao draws 3, Bessenok draws 1
      Maestro Shao checks, Bessenok bets, Maestro Shao raises, Bessenok 3-bets, Maestro Shao calls

      Final Pot: 10 BB
      Bessenok shows A :heart: K :diamond: K :club: K :heart: 3 :diamond: (three of a kind, Kings)
      Maestro Shao shows A :diamond: A :spade: A :club: K :spade: 7 :spade: (three of a kind, Aces)
      Maestro Shao wins 9.975 BB
      (Rake: $0.50)