[NL2-NL10] NL2 - FR - AQs - shoves vs raise

    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP+1: $0.92
      CO: $2.22
      BTN: $2.22
      Hero (SB): $2.00
      BB: $2.00
      UTG: $3.55
      UTG+1: $1.92
      MP: $0.71

      Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has Q:club: A:club:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.12, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold

      Flop: ($0.28, 2 players) A:heart: K:diamond: 9:spade:
      Hero bets $0.18, UTG+1 raises to $0.36, Hero raises to $1.88 and is all-in ???

      Hello,

      He limped preflop, so I excluded AK and KK+ from his range. The only hand that beats me at this point are A9 and 99. About his raise, I think he could still do this with AQ, AJ, and AT. Do I overplayed this hand?

      Board: A:heart: K:diamond: 9:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP1    42.68%  37.03%   5.65% { 99, AJs-A9s, AJo-A9o }
      SB     57.32%  51.67%   5.65% { AcQc }

      As you can see I got 57% while I only need 42%, so equity-wise it's still okay to ship here. He's unknown, should I include gutshot hands to his range like QJ-JT?

      Thanks,
      cpers
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello cpers,

      Nah, I am not a huge fan of playing for the stacks just thinking oh he is min-raising me, he is limping preflop. This rather makes me think that he could easily have a strong hand. I don't have anything on the opponent. So I'd either just Bet/Fold it or Bet/Call it once and reevaluate what kind of actions he takes on the turn.

      And we can't exclude any hands from opponents range while we don't even know him. :) Of course it's very likely that he doesn't limp with them but can we be 100% sure?

      It's very often the case that people tend to rather play passively with just Ax hand, especially if they are loose preflop.

      Best Regards.
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      Originally posted by veriz
      So I'd either just Bet/Fold it or Bet/Call it once and reevaluate what kind of actions he takes on the turn.
      I could agree with bet/fold but don't think bet/call is a good idea though. You expect him for trapping preflop with hand like AK,AA,KK, right? So I don't get it what's to evaluate, any hand that improves us just gonna make us shoves while we're behind. If Q shows up, we're behind against he's AK, AA, KK, 99, if A shows up we also behind against his AK, AA , KK, 99. So I prefer bet/fold or bet/shove it while we could still be ahead against AJ-AT. Besides we're OOP so don't think calling is a good idea.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Everything can happen on those limits with those guys. :D They can even limp with such hands, that's why stats would be useful here. But overall that's true that we should rather consider Bet/Folding here.

      Bet/Call is the idea of depending on the opponent, usually very loose opponents tend not to Bet the turn very big with just Ax hand and we can still continue and if he does then usually he represent a strong hand. Board is also kind of dry and not much to protect from.