The Weekly Freebie 1/2: "You can't win if you fold"

    • EuanM
      EuanM
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2011 Posts: 531
      Hey folks,

      Introducing the Weekly Freebie!

      Patrick & Callum take to the PokerStrategy.com Recording Room in Gibraltar for the purposes of hand anaysis. They briefly discuss and give their thoughts on the plays made by Patrick, and Callum offers some fresh insight into the effectiveness of the plays made by his standard.

      Patrick & Callum work here in Gibraltar for the PS.com Marketing Analysis team and try to fit their poker careers around a full-time position of employment. With this video series, they aim to get more involved in our community to kick-start their 2012 with some fantastic hand analysis in a short and sweet, easily digestible format.

      Snap river call right? :f_biggrin:


      BB: $637
      Hero (SB): $602

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K:diamond: J:diamond:
      Hero raises to $6.00, BB calls $4.00

      Flop: ($12) K:heart: J:club: 5:diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $8.00, BB calls $8.00

      Turn: ($28) 5:spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $22.00, BB calls $22.00

      River: ($72) 2:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $45.00, BB raises to $119, Hero ($521) ?


      Now, after reading the hand for yourself, you can listen in to Patrick & Callums thoughts about the plays made, as they take time out of their day for the purposes of hand analysis in the video they have created for us:





      Let us know what you think about the hand! Can you make this river-shove with certain reads?
  • 26 replies
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      Hi Guys,

      Excited to bring you hopefully the first of many videos in our series!

      We want to stay away from ‘standard’ hands and get people really thinking about poker in lots of different ways. That was one of our goals with this video. This hopefully will make for some interesting discussions!

      I’m looking forward to hearing peoples thoughts on the hand we talked about. I know it goes against the general advice of don’t try and make people fold strong hands, but Patrick and myself always try to push every edge.

      What do you think you would do with A5 here as the villain, once you cleared all the puke off your screen?
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Also would like to apologise for the lack of entertainment, although the series will be a one for poker geeks to bookmark, I'll make sure in the future we move the screen around a little and play about with the maths etc.

      Let us know your thoughts :)
    • EuanM
      EuanM
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2011 Posts: 531
      Please feel free to share any thoughts or questions about the video!
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      liked the hand, math though:

      OTR: we need to put in an extra 521 to win 236, so it needs to be succesful 68.8% of the time. this is assuming he never calls river with worse (if he did this would become a pretty bad bluff ;) )
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      This is something we should have put in to be fair.

      If we give him a calling range of 55,A5cc,A5hh,K5cc,J5cc we need to find roughly 10 combos he folds

      If we just give him 45-85s that is allready 8, we can add some A5o hands too etc 1-2 bluffs and we easily come up with 10 combos that he folds.

      If we then decide that he only ever calls 55/J5cc/K5cc we only need to find 6 combos he folds and it becomes even easier.
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Originally posted by CallumN

      If we then decide that he only ever calls 55/J5cc/K5cc we only need to find 6 combos he folds and it becomes even easier.
      This is the calling range that I assumed he would have on the river when I 3bet fwiw.
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      i liked the thought process of "lol i have top 2, call", that was my first immediate thought, when i saw the hand, but really nice analysis. would have never bluffed the river, maybe that's why i don't battle good nl200 regs ;)
    • matusko
      matusko
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 5,894
      Love the format, but still not sure what i think about the hand.... Like yeah villains range is capped at 5x, but if he knows that we know that, we are pretty much fcked :D
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by matusko
      Love the format, but still not sure what i think about the hand.... Like yeah villains range is capped at 5x, but if he knows that we know that, we are pretty much fcked :D
      he still needs to put us on trying to make him fold 5x... and that's quite an ambitious assumption!
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      Originally posted by matusko
      Love the format, but still not sure what i think about the hand.... Like yeah villains range is capped at 5x, but if he knows that we know that, we are pretty much fcked :D

      I think even if he knows this. He cant make a profitable call. we have 6 combos of just JJ-KK, We can also have all the J5o/K5o combos but he only has the suited combos.

      He has to call roughly 400 to win 712 so is getting just under 2-1 so if we have say 10 value combos (we have a few more actually), he needs to find 5 bluff combos.

      I dont think the average 200nl reg bluffs with that kind of frequency!
    • Benps
      Benps
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2011 Posts: 1,637
      Worst hand we b3b shove for value? Wwyd w/ A5?
      (if we want to set up a balanced b3b range).

      Also, does anyone have a clue about how to do the EV calc when
      a) villain folds 5x some % of the time
      but
      b) hero calls sth like kq some %?
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Originally posted by Benps
      Worst hand we b3b shove for value? Wwyd w/ A5?
      (if we want to set up a balanced b3b range).

      If he is capped at 5x we should definitely shove river with A5, it doesn't matter if he calls a tiny % of the time because in HU if you have the momentum and he feels you are running him over then you are able to pwn him alot more as we rereadjust quicker than he rerereadjusts.
    • matusko
      matusko
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 5,894
      Originally posted by CallumN
      Originally posted by matusko
      Love the format, but still not sure what i think about the hand.... Like yeah villains range is capped at 5x, but if he knows that we know that, we are pretty much fcked :D

      I think even if he knows this. He cant make a profitable call. we have 6 combos of just JJ-KK, We can also have all the J5o/K5o combos but he only has the suited combos.

      He has to call roughly 400 to win 712 so is getting just under 2-1 so if we have say 10 value combos (we have a few more actually), he needs to find 5 bluff combos.

      I dont think the average 200nl reg bluffs with that kind of frequency!
      Those are very good points, completely agree. I just dont like the concept of trying to bluff villain off the top of his range in general. But spots like this will arise, where it might be good.
      Interesting hand.
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      I think the fact that we are trying to make him fold the top of his perceived range & the fact he is almost always at the top of his range that gets to the river is the main reason why we shouldn't jam because he will be "LOL game theory, I'm super exploitable, cawl"
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Also we can weight his range to hands that aren't full houses because of his bet sizing which to me looks like thin value rather than full houses.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      Originally posted by pleno1
      Also we can weight his range to hands that aren't full houses because of his bet sizing which to me looks like thin value rather than full houses.
      absl, although instinctively sticking in 250bbs in a 100bb pot with top 2 as a bluff doesnt sound quite right
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Yeh as I said in the video, my first thought was LOL, TOP 2, CAWLLLLLLLLL, but the aggressive side of me said waiiiiiiiittttta minute.
    • fruktpuff
      fruktpuff
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 3,982
      Ooh, red avatar, eh, EuanM?

      When'd that happen? Congratulations regardless!
    • EuanM
      EuanM
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2011 Posts: 531
      Originally posted by fruktpuff
      Ooh, red avatar, eh, EuanM?

      When'd that happen? Congratulations regardless!

      Just a couple of days ago, I needed more access for a task in a team meeting.

      Thanks btw! :f_p:

      Did you see the hand? :f_biggrin:
    • 1
    • 2