[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #19 31.01.12

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from Jan 31st, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Tuesday, February 7th at 6 PM GMT.

      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

      MP2: $2.63 (131.5 bb)
      MP3: $4.18 (209 bb)
      CO: $2 (100 bb)
      BTN: $0.79 (39.5 bb)
      SB: $3.61 (180.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $2 (100 bb)
      UTG+1: $1.54 (77 bb)
      UTG+2: $3.67 (183.5 bb)
      MP1: $5.92 (296 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 7
      UTG+1 calls $0.02, UTG+2 calls $0.02, MP1 raises to $0.04, 4 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, UTG+2 calls $0.02

      Flop: ($0.20) J 7 Q (5 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.14, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.14, MP1 folds, SB calls $0.14

      Turn: ($0.62) 6 (3 players)
      SB bets $0.62, Hero?

      SB: VP$IP=34, PFR=13, AF=1.8, HANDS=54
  • 7 replies
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      On flop at first looked right, but later I thought against so many oponennts we can donkbet even pot easily. There is so high chacne that they will have Qx or draw so we will get so much value and we need to protect.


      On turn its 95% flush. But we have many outs to fullhouse, I don't do math, but I think we have enoug implied odds to call, because he will not laydown flush if the board becomes paired. Plus if the other oponent calls we have even more implieds. Of course he might raise, but that should not be often when there is so much action, he should need also the nuts to do that.
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      FLOP: He should've bet pot size, it's 5-way pot. Maybe even a shove :D , who knows one of them might be tempted.

      TURN: The only hand that we could beat safely are 76,QJ, and 66 while there's a lot of hand that beats us, like any made flush. We can't raise here since we have to shove to raise, while if we call here we could get squeezed by the other player. Another thing SB ch/c on the flop, so most likely he's chasing flush and plus there's a high chance UTG+2 also chasing flush. I think it's easy fold here, not worth it to continue.
    • AxsisHalon
      AxsisHalon
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.12.2011 Posts: 112
      pre: standard pp call, set mining
      flop: 3/4 standard bet value/prot
      turn: imo fold here, SB may hit his flush as his line looks like chasing draw, he bets pot size imo its value/prot from higher heart + we still have 1 player after us, what we gonna if our turn call, got raised from LP.
    • BogdanDr
      BogdanDr
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2009 Posts: 188
      After a check call and a pot sized donk from a non aggresive tipe of opponent, I would say that we can assume that we are almost always against a flush here.
      We know that if he has a flush he will stack off even if the board pairs (talking about an NL 2 player). We have around 4 to 1 chances to make a full house or quads and if our assumption is correct, we invest 0,62$ to get a pot of 4,26$ (considering that we will always successfully invest the rest of 1,2$ in our stack). This means that we get around 6 to 1.

      Even though there still is an opp to act behind, I think that a call here is profitable as he is less likely to reraise with anything but the nuts.

      In the possibility that he for some reason decided to get out of his usual line and fire one as a bluff, we have position and can check behind if we don't hit.
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      PF: standard call

      F: Donk is the best option but i would bet pot against 4 opponents

      T: We can be pretty sure SB was on a flushdraw and trys to protect it with a potsized bet. Against him alone we should get good enough implieds. But the problem is that we have UTG2 behind us.
      Because of this we can't be sure of our implieds and we don't even know the real price to see the river card. Therefore i would fold the turn.

      Especially because SB bets Pot and we don't have any information on UTG2. If we know UTG2 is a loose/passive player i would call for sure.
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      Turn: With the SB having fairly passive stats I think he has a made hand here. Either 66 or a made flush. I'm pretty sure even such a passive player he would have played JJ,QQ more agressively pre or postflop. I think we can assume the same for JQ also. I also doubt that this type of player plays FD's this way in MWP's

      Therefore I think raising SB's bet is pointless at this stage since we have no FE* and we would very rarely find ourselves up against 66 and be raising for value. Also if the UTG player has a hand that he would prefer to call the turn with but fold to a raise then we lose some extra money that would increase our pot odds and make our call more profitable.

      we need 3.6:1 on the turn to make our call break even or better.
      (52-6)-10 = 36/10 = 3.6:1

      On the turn we get 2:1 so we would need at to have either the SB or UTG player to invest around $1 more on the turn or river to make calling here profitable

      If we could be sure that UTG would only call or fold it would be an easy call since if he calls it gives us even better expressed odds and implied odds as the pot on the river will be even bigger, therefore we can value bet bigger. If he folds then we have already assumed that SB will go broke very often or at least pay us off to the tune of $1.

      If he raises, this makes life a little more difficult due to our effective stack size, we only get the correct expressed or implied odds when the SB joins in. If SB folds then I don't think we get the right price to draw against what is certainly a made flush.

      Lets say the following happens for arguments sake

      SB bets 0.62, hero calls .62, UTG makes it 3x ($1.86), SB folds

      Total pot would be 3.72 and it would cost us $1.20 (all in) to call

      we now only get 3:1 and can't win anything extra, therefore implied odds don't come into it anymore and it can only be a losing play.

      Can we just assume since SB is repping such a strong hand, that he will never bet/fold the turn? If so then it is an easy call all-in if SB shoves since our odds will be much more favourable:

      (3.72+1.24)=4.96/1.20=4.13:1
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      Preflop: Perfect spot to set-mine here and I wouldn't do much differently.
      Flop: Rather bet it even pot size here, if they have a hand they are willing to pay anyways. We need to protect our hand!
      Turn: That's one of the cruel spots. The question is really to us either we are able to fold on river or not. Cause if we don't hit we definitely have to fold it! Cause we mostly here are against flush and being in a multiway pot it's very likely that he is donking into us with flush. So therefore the question is if he is capable of paying us with it on the river or not? Based on that we can make our decision but most likely while haven't invested much into the pot folding is totally fine as well cause we are behind here most likely.

      Best Regards.