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[NL20-NL50] sh 25 bluff raise donk river bet

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1619602
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter


      SB: $17.20 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.3, Hands: 35


      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 6 :spade: 4 :spade:
      3 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

      Flop: ($0.50) J :club: J :heart: 2 :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50

      Turn: ($1.50) Q :heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, SB calls $1

      River: ($3.50) T :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.75, Hero raises to $4.55, SB calls $2.80

      I thought that he can have either missed draws or Jx in his range. Assuming that is my bluff raise +EV? My math says it has to work little under 50% to be BE, so it's more opponent dependent right? Some will never have a draw and some will never have Jx imo.

      I usually discount Jx combos in these spots when my opponent is first to act and doesn't bet his hand. Good assumption?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      he would not b/f there Qx and likely also not Tx, so I don´t like your river raise. I would also not pot the flop (if you want to take chance, then 0.3$ bet should be enough) and also I would give up on the turn.
      You can´t win every pot and I don´t see any reason bluffing on small pot without any equity

      best regards,